Union Pacific delivers 41% ROE, 29% operating margins, and ranks best-in-class on both return and margin metrics within the railroad peer group, with a 3-out-of-4 earnings beat streak, but trades near analyst resistance with negative asymmetry and a PEG of 3.26 suggesting the quality is already fully priced in.
Thesis pillars
- Best In Class Roe And Margins→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak Consistency↑Improving
- Price At Resistance Negative Asymmetry→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Stock Analysis
Temporary headwind edge
Industrials · Railroads
Sell if holding. At $284.39, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.2%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Company is the principal operating company of Union Pacific Corporation. One of America's most recognized companies, Union Pacific Railroad Company connects 23 states in the western two-thirds of the country by rail, providing a critical link in the global supply chain. The... Read more
Sell if holding. At $284.39, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.2%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — Union Pacific Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Union Pacific to post Q2 earnings amid merger push (UNP:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS UNP Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN — CNN neutral
- NEWS Union Pacific (UNP) Set to Report Q1 Earnings with Mixed Expecta - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Union Pacific (UNP) Could Be a Great Choice - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS UNP (Union Pacific Corporation) posts narrow Q4 2025 EPS miss, shares trade nearly flat in muted investor reaction. - Co — UBND thành phố Hải Phòng negative
Generated 2026-09-14T20:47:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $284.39, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.2%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $274.49. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $296.32 (+4.2% upside). Prior stop was $274.49. Stop-loss: $274.49.
Thin upside margin: 4.2%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0.
Union Pacific Corporation trades at a P/E of 23.0 (forward 20.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
31 analysts cover UNP with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $329.
What does Union Pacific Corporation do?Company is the principal operating company of Union Pacific Corporation. One of America's most recognized companies,...
Company is the principal operating company of Union Pacific Corporation. One of America's most recognized companies, Union Pacific Railroad Company connects 23 states in the western two-thirds of the country by rail, providing a critical link in the global supply chain. The Railroad's diversified business mix includes Bulk, Industrial, and Premium. Union Pacific serves many of the fastest-growing U.S.