A stated margin of safety and strong fundamentals are offset by a reached analyst target with limited upside, a mixed earnings record with weak growth, and a newly negative reward/risk reading, arguing for trimming the position.
Thesis pillars
- Margin Of Safety Valuation Cushion→Stable
- Limited Upside Analyst Target Reached↓Deteriorating
- Consecutive Misses Weak Growth↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 6, 2026
Northrim BanCorp Inc (NRIM) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. At $23.98, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 74% exposure to Alaska (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Alaska (74.0%).
Northrim BanCorp is the third largest commercial bank in Alaska by deposits, operating through three segments: Community Banking (commercial and consumer lending via 20 Alaska branches), Home Mortgage Lending (1-4 family residential mortgages sold to the secondary market), and... Read more
Sell if holding. At $23.98, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 74% exposure to Alaska (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Alaska (74.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.
About Northrim BanCorp Inc
About Northrim BanCorp Inc
Northrim BanCorp, the third largest commercial bank in Alaska by deposits, held $3.3 billion in total assets and $2.8 billion in total deposits as of December 31, 2025, operating 20 branches across the state alongside a Washington State factoring division and its Sallyport Commercial Finance subsidiary. The Home Mortgage Lending segment generated 26 percent of 2025 revenue from the residential housing market, with 74 percent of mortgage originations located in Alaska.
Northrim earns revenue across three segments: Community Banking, emphasizing relationship-based commercial and real estate lending with credit decisions made locally in Alaska; Home Mortgage Lending, which originates 1-4 family residential mortgages primarily for sale to the secondary market including the Alaska Housing Finance Corporation, while retaining servicing rights; and Specialty Finance, which provides factoring, asset-based lending and working-capital solutions nationally and in Canada and the United Kingdom through Sallyport Commercial Finance, acquired in October 2024. Approximately 20 percent of the loan portfolio at December 31, 2025 was attributable to 28 large borrowing relationships, defined as commitments equal to at least 50 percent of the Bank's legal lending limit to one borrower, while 32 depositors with balances over $10 million accounted for $707.8 million, or 25 percent, of total deposits.
Show full overview
Northrim's results remain tied to Alaska's oil-dependent economy: the Department of Revenue forecasts Alaska North Slope crude production averaging 457,000 barrels per day in fiscal year 2026, rising to 518,000 in fiscal year 2027 as the Pikka and Willow fields come online, while ANS crude prices ranged from $76.39 per barrel in January 2025 to $62.70 in December 2025. A material portion of Northrim's loans are secured by real estate concentrated in greater Anchorage, the Matanuska-Susitna Valley, Fairbanks and Southeast Alaska, markets where Anchorage home prices rose for an eighth consecutive year in 2025 even as unit sales edged down 0.6 percent.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Northrim BanCorp Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Northrim BanCorp Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Northrim BanCorp and PBCO Financial Corporation Announce Shareholder Approvals for Proposed Acquisition — fiscal.ai Oct 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS Northrim BanCorp Receives All Required Shareholder Approvals Related To Its Proposed Acquisition Of PBCO Financial — benzinga Oct 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS KBW Maintains Northrim BanCorp With Hold Rating — fiscal.ai Oct 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Maintains Market Perform on Northrim BanCorp, Lowers Price Target to $29 — benzinga Oct 19, 2026 negative
- NEWS Reported Earlier, Northrim BanCorp Q3 Adj. EPS $0.60 Misses $0.69 Estimate, Sales $38.887M Beat $38.700M Estimate — benzinga Oct 16, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicAlaska74%10-K Item 1: 'Of the 1-4 family residential mortgages originated by the Company in 2025, 74% were located in Alaska.'
- LOWloan_portfolio28 large borrowing relationships20%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 20% of our loan portfolio at December 31, 2025 is attributable to 28 large borrowing relationships.'
- MEDIUMloan_portfolio32 large depositors (balances over $10 million)25%10-K Item 1: 'Northrim had 32 customers with balances over $10 million as of December 31, 2025, which accounted for $707.8 million, or 25%, of total deposits.'
- MEDIUMProductHome Mortgage Lending / residential housing market26%10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, 26% of our revenue was derived from the residential housing market in the form of loan fees and interest on mortgage loans'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -20.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $23.98, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 74% exposure to Alaska (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Alaska (74.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Prior stop was $22.80. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $24.08 (+0.4% upside). Prior stop was $22.80. Stop-loss: $22.80.
Single-region cliff: 74% exposure to Alaska (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Alaska (74.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Northrim BanCorp Inc trades at a P/E of 9.7 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover NRIM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Northrim BanCorp Inc do?Northrim BanCorp is the third largest commercial bank in Alaska by deposits, operating through three segments:...
Northrim BanCorp is the third largest commercial bank in Alaska by deposits, operating through three segments: Community Banking (commercial and consumer lending via 20 Alaska branches), Home Mortgage Lending (1-4 family residential mortgages sold to the secondary market), and Specialty Finance (factoring and asset-based lending through subsidiary Sallyport Commercial Finance). The company held $3.3 billion in total assets and $2.8 billion in total deposits as of December 31, 2025, with 74% of 2025 residential mortgage originations located in Alaska and approximately 20% of its loan portfolio