ChoiceOne Financial is a small regional bank with strong margins, a 9.2x forward P/E and a breakout chart, but the price of $34.26 is already above the $31.45 analyst target, growth is weak, and the loan book is concentrated in commercial real estate.
Thesis pillars
- Commercial Real Estate Loan Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Analyst Target Already Exceeded↓Deteriorating
- Strong Margins Cheap Valuation→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 13, 2026
ChoiceOne Financial Services, I (COFS) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Wait for pullback to $32.75. Price sits above the model's entry target of $32.75; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and construction real estate loans (59.6%); Concentration risk — Product: interest and fees on loans (76.0%).
ChoiceOne Financial Services is a Michigan-based bank holding company operating ChoiceOne Bank, a full-service commercial bank with 47 offices across western, central, and southeastern Michigan. Following its March 2025 merger with Fentura Financial (parent of The State Bank),... Read more
Wait for pullback to $32.75. Price sits above the model's entry target of $32.75; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and construction real estate loans (59.6%); Concentration risk — Product: interest and fees on loans (76.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About ChoiceOne Financial Services, I
About ChoiceOne Financial Services, I
ChoiceOne Financial Services reported $4.4 billion in consolidated total assets, $3.0 billion in net loans, and $3.5 billion in deposits (excluding brokered deposits) as of December 31, 2025, generating $28.2 million in net income for the year. The company completed its merger with Fentura Financial, parent of The State Bank, on March 1, 2025, consolidating that bank into ChoiceOne Bank in March 2025. ChoiceOne operates 47 full-service offices, one drive-up office, five loan production offices, and a wealth management office across Michigan.
Interest and fees on loans generated 76% of ChoiceOne's total revenue in 2025, up from 60% in 2023, as the loan portfolio has grown relative to the securities book; interest on securities fell to 12% of revenue in 2025 from 24% in 2023. The loan book is weighted toward commercial and construction real estate, at approximately $1.8 billion or 59.6% of total loans, while residential real estate loans totaled $728.0 million (24.1%) and commercial and industrial loans $352.6 million (11.7%). ChoiceOne also owns ChoiceOne Insurance Agencies and 109 Technologies, a subsidiary formed in 2023 to hold intellectual property for a fintech product licensed to third-party banks. The Bank is a Federal Reserve System member and Michigan-chartered institution regulated by the Michigan Department of Insurance and Financial Services, and was rated well-capitalized, well-managed, and Satisfactory under the Community Reinvestment Act as of its most recent examination.
Show full overview
ChoiceOne's own risk factors describe significant exposure to commercial and residential real estate, with commercial and construction real estate loans alone representing approximately 59.6% of the total loan portfolio at year-end 2025. That real estate concentration sits on top of a geographic footprint confined entirely to Michigan, with no foreign assets or income, so a Michigan-specific economic downturn, rather than a national one, is the scenario the company's own risk factors flag as most likely to pressure loan demand and credit performance simultaneously across nearly the entire book.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From ChoiceOne Financial Services, I's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — ChoiceOne Financial Services, I
Latest news
- NEWS ChoiceOne Financial Services (COFS) Expected to Announce Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS COFS Q3'26 Earnings: EPS estimate is 0.93 USD - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc expected to post earnings of 88 cents a share - Earnings Preview - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Why ChoiceOne Financial Services (COFS) is Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates Again - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:COFS - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial and construction real estate loans60%10-K Item 1A: 'As of December 31, 2025, the Company had approximately $1.8 billion of commercial and construction real estate loans outstanding, which represented approximately 59.6% of its loan portfolio.'
- LOWloan_portfolioresidential real estate loans24%10-K Item 1A: 'the Company had approximately $728.0 million in residential real estate loans outstanding, or approximately 24.1% of its loan portfolio.'
- HIGHProductinterest and fees on loans76%10-K Item 1: 'interest and fees on loans accounted for 76%, 64%, and 60% of total revenues in 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.'
- HIGHGeographicMichigan10-K Item 1: 'The Bank's primary market areas lie within western, central, and southeastern Michigan, in the communities where the Bank's respective offices are located.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Revenue shrinking — -2.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $32.75. Price sits above the model's entry target of $32.75; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and construction real estate loans (59.6%); Concentration risk — Product: interest and fees on loans (76.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $31.45 reached (−8.6%), stop $31.07 (−10.7%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $31.45 reached (−8.6% from $34.41); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $31.45 reached (−8.6%), stop $31.07 (−10.7%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Stop-loss: $31.07.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and construction real estate loans (59.6%); Concentration risk — Product: interest and fees on loans (76.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
ChoiceOne Financial Services, I trades at a P/E of 9.4 (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
9 analysts cover COFS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $37.
What does ChoiceOne Financial Services, I do?ChoiceOne Financial Services is a Michigan-based bank holding company operating ChoiceOne Bank, a full-service...
ChoiceOne Financial Services is a Michigan-based bank holding company operating ChoiceOne Bank, a full-service commercial bank with 47 offices across western, central, and southeastern Michigan. Following its March 2025 merger with Fentura Financial (parent of The State Bank), the company held $4.4 billion in consolidated assets, $3.0 billion in net loans and $3.5 billion in deposits at year-end 2025, with commercial and construction real estate loans making up 59.6% of the loan portfolio.