Arrow Financial is a cheaply valued regional bank with strong margins and positive momentum, but its price already sits above the analyst target and earnings are due in five days after a recent miss. It is a hold rather than an add.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Margins No Moat→Stable
- Attractive Bank Valuation→Stable
- Price Above Analyst Target→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 6, 2026
Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.03, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).
Arrow Financial Corporation is a bank holding company for Arrow Bank, N.A., a $4.42 billion-asset community bank operating 38 branches and 9 insurance offices concentrated in upstate New York, offering commercial and consumer banking, an indirect auto-lending network across New... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.03, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Arrow Financial Corporation
About Arrow Financial Corporation
Arrow Financial Corporation's bank subsidiary, Arrow Bank, N.A., held $4.42 billion in total assets and operated 38 branches and 9 insurance offices concentrated in upstate New York as of December 31, 2025, regulated primarily by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve. On July 1, 2026, Arrow closed its acquisition of Adirondack Bancorp and merged Adirondack Bank into Arrow Bank, expanding its regional retail and commercial banking footprint.
Arrow earns net interest income from commercial and industrial loans to small and mid-sized companies, residential and commercial mortgage lending, and consumer installment and home equity financing, funded primarily by deposits gathered from the communities Arrow Bank serves. An indirect lending program sources auto loans through a network of dealers across New York and Vermont, and Arrow periodically sells residential mortgage originations to Freddie Mac and other agencies while typically retaining servicing rights. Fee income comes from Arrow Bank's insurance agency subsidiary, a registered investment adviser, and trust operations that provide retirement planning, estate administration, and pension and benefit-plan administration, revenue streams the 10-K notes are sensitive to asset values and could decline if trust and wealth management customers liquidate holdings during an equity-market downturn. Arrow Bank also buys and sells participations in individual commercial loans, mostly within upstate New York, generally keeping such participations below 20% of commercial loans outstanding.
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Arrow's loan book and deposit base sit almost entirely within upstate New York, a structural concentration the 10-K itself flags: Arrow lends primarily to borrowers within its normal retail service area in upstate New York, with the indirect auto-lending line as the only meaningful exception extending into Vermont. That means Arrow, unlike larger regional banks, cannot spread the risk of a downturn unique to its home market over a broader geographic footprint, so a slowdown specific to the Glens Falls, NY region would hit loan quality, deposit growth, and trust and wealth management fee income simultaneously. The freshly closed Adirondack Bancorp acquisition deepens rather than diversifies this exposure, since Adirondack Bank operated within the same regional New York market Arrow already serves.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Arrow Financial Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Arrow Financial Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Arrow Financial (AROW) Slips 1.15% as Support Level Approaches - Collar Trade - DonanımHaber — DonanımHaber negative
- NEWS Arrow Financial (AROW) Slips 1.15% as Support Level Approaches - Box Spread - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et negative
- NEWS Arrow Financial Corporation Completes Strategic Acquisition of Adirondack Bancorp, Inc. - AOL.com — AOL.com positive
- NEWS Arrow Financial Corporation Completes Strategic Acquisition of Adirondack Bancorp, Inc. - aol.com — aol.com positive
- NEWS Arrow Financial completes acquisition of Adirondack Bancorp By Investing.com - Investing.com India — Investing.com India positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:24Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicupstate New York10-K Item 1: 'Arrow Bank lends primarily to borrowers within the normal retail service area in upstate New York, with the exception of the indirect consumer lending line of business'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-07-01Item 2.01MEDIUMOn July 1, 2026, Arrow closed its acquisition of Adirondack Bancorp, Inc., merging Adirondack Bank into Arrow Bank; banking-system conversion and integration is scheduled to complete later in 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-07-01Item 5.02LOWIn connection with the Adirondack merger closing, the company appointed Rocco F. Arcuri, Sr. (details truncated in source); routine appointment tied to the transaction.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.03, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $36.98 reached (−2.8%), stop $36.31 (−4.7%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $36.98 reached (−2.8% from $38.03); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $36.98 reached (−2.8%), stop $36.31 (−4.7%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $36.31.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Weak growth.
Arrow Financial Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
10 analysts cover AROW with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $44.
What does Arrow Financial Corporation do?Arrow Financial Corporation is a bank holding company for Arrow Bank, N.A., a $4.42 billion-asset community bank...
Arrow Financial Corporation is a bank holding company for Arrow Bank, N.A., a $4.42 billion-asset community bank operating 38 branches and 9 insurance offices concentrated in upstate New York, offering commercial and consumer banking, an indirect auto-lending network across New York and Vermont, and trust and wealth-management services. On July 1, 2026, Arrow completed its acquisition of Adirondack Bancorp, Inc., merging Adirondack Bank into Arrow Bank, with Adirondack shareholders receiving 1.8610 Arrow shares plus $18.72 in cash per share.