National Presto is growing revenue about 22% with accumulation by institutions, but earnings are expected to fall about 85% from a cyclical peak, the stock is above its analyst target and cash conversion is weak.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth→Stable
- Cyclical Earnings Peak→Stable
- Price Above Analyst Target→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 13, 2026
National Presto Industries, Inc (NPK) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. At $150.78, A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: third-party suppliers in China; Earnings expected to decline ~85% (cyclical peak).
National Presto Industries operates three segments: Housewares/Small Appliance (pressure cookers, kitchen electrics and comfort appliances), Defense (40mm ammunition, precision mechanical assemblies and energetic devices for the U.S. Department of Defense), and Safety (smoke,... Read more
Sell if holding. At $150.78, A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: third-party suppliers in China; Earnings expected to decline ~85% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 47, MACD bullish. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About National Presto Industries, Inc
About National Presto Industries, Inc
National Presto Industries operates three segments, Housewares/Small Appliance, Defense, and Safety, with the Defense segment's contract backlog reaching approximately $1.75 billion at December 31, 2025, up from $1.09 billion a year earlier, on the strength of a sole-source 40mm ammunition systems contract with the U.S. Army carrying a maximum ceiling value of $1.41 billion for its current five-year term. The company employed 1,200 people as of December 31, 2025, including 179 unionized workers at its Amron cartridge-case plant.
The Housewares/Small Appliance segment designs and markets pressure cookers, kitchen electrics and comfort appliances sold primarily in the United States and Canada, sourcing a majority of its products from a handful of third-party suppliers in China on a purchase-order basis without long-term supply contracts. The Defense segment, run through subsidiaries AMTEC, Spectra Technologies, Amron and Woodlawn Manufacturing, produces 40mm ammunition, cartridge cases, energetic devices and metal parts almost entirely under fixed-price U.S. government contracts that permit termination for the government's convenience. The Safety segment, comprising Rely Innovations after National Presto divested Rusoh in 2023 and OneEvent's refrigeration-monitoring assets in 2025, remains startup in nature with limited revenue, selling smoke, carbon monoxide and combination alarms that require Underwriters Laboratories or ETL certification before sale.
Show full overview
National Presto's Defense segment revenue rests on a narrow customer base: AMTEC has been the U.S. Army's sole prime contractor for the 40mm ammunition system across four consecutive five-year contract cycles dating to 2005, with the current FY22-26 award valued at up to $1.41 billion, meaning a failure to win a successor contract after FY26 would remove the segment's largest program. Meanwhile, in the Housewares segment, Amazon.com accounted for 10% and 11% of consolidated net sales in 2024 and 2023, respectively, though the 10-K states no single customer reached that threshold in 2025, and the company continues to warn that losing Amazon as a customer would have a material adverse effect.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From National Presto Industries, Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — National Presto Industries, Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Ahead of the Monday 26 October Earnings Cluster, Which Non-Bank Names Deserve Closer Attention: H2O America, Hawkins, Tr — kalkine.ca neutral
- NEWS Which Earnings Signals Could Lockheed Martin, Allegion, Honeywell, Snap-on, Booz Allen Hamilton and National Presto Deli — kalkine.ca neutral
- NEWS Why Did NPK International (NYSE:NPKI) Hit a New Low? - Kalkine Media — Kalkine Media negative
- NEWS NPK International (NYSE:NPKI) Hits New 52-Week Low - Should You Sell? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS National Presto Industries: Even A $1.81 Billion Defense Backlog Has Its Limits (NYSE:NPK) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:40Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerAmazon.com10%10-K Item 1: 'For the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, Amazon.com, Inc. accounted for 10% and 11%, respectively, of the Company's consolidated net sales.'
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. Government and prime contractors (Defense segment)10-K Item 1A: 'As the Company's sales in the Defense segment are primarily to the U.S. Government and its prime contractors, it depends heavily on the contracts underlying these programs.'
- HIGHSupplierthird-party suppliers in China10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of the housewares/small appliance products are manufactured by a handful of third-party suppliers in Asia, primarily in the People's Republic of China.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $150.78, A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: third-party suppliers in China; Earnings expected to decline ~85% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 47, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $142.96. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $137.70 reached (−8.7% from $150.78); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $142.96. Stop-loss: $142.96.
Concentration risk — Supplier: third-party suppliers in China; Earnings expected to decline ~85% (cyclical peak); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
National Presto Industries, Inc trades at a P/E of 25.2 (forward 173.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover NPK with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $162.
What does National Presto Industries, Inc do?National Presto Industries operates three segments: Housewares/Small Appliance (pressure cookers, kitchen electrics and...
National Presto Industries operates three segments: Housewares/Small Appliance (pressure cookers, kitchen electrics and comfort appliances), Defense (40mm ammunition, precision mechanical assemblies and energetic devices for the U.S. Department of Defense), and Safety (smoke, carbon monoxide and combination alarms through subsidiary Rely Innovations). The Defense segment's contract backlog reached approximately $1.75 billion as of December 31, 2025, largely tied to a sole-source 40mm ammunition contract with the U.S. Army, while the Housewares segment sources a majority of its products from th