Value
4.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.0 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 8.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 173.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.84
NPK · Why this verdict
Why National Presto Industries (NPK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
National Presto is growing revenue about 22% with accumulation by institutions, but earnings are expected to fall about 85% from a cyclical peak, the stock is above its analyst target and cash conversion is weak.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew about 22% year over year, with $146.6M in the quarter ended July 2026 against $120.4M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Revenue should keep growing at 10% or better year over year toward the $105M next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterQuarterly revenue swings widely, from $163.97M in December 2025 to $118.6M in April 2026, and the next-quarter estimate of $105M is below the latest quarter. | ||
Earnings are expected to decline about 85% from a cyclical peak, which is why the forward P/E is 171x against 25x trailing. Warnings | Forward earnings should fall by less than the feared 85%, keeping the forward P/E below 171x. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward multiple of 171x on shrinking earnings means the shares are expensive on the earnings that analysts expect to follow the peak. | ||
Price of $148.93 is 7.5% above the $137.70 analyst target, with about 5.6% downside to the $127.16 stop. Upside pct | Analyst targets should rise toward the current price if earnings hold up. | →Stable |
| CounterWith a negative reward-to-risk of -1.3 and earnings due in 3 days, a disappointing report has no valuation cushion. | ||
Cash conversion is weak at 21% FCF to net income, flagged as an earnings quality red flag, although the Piotroski F-Score is a solid 7 of 9. Quality breakdown | FCF to net income should recover above 50% as working capital normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterGross margin scores 0.0 and the company relies on third-party suppliers in China, a concentration the 10-K flags as high risk. | ||
Rising on-balance volume, a position above the 200-day average and institutional accumulation point to steady buying of the shares. Momentum breakdown | Price should stay above its 200-day average with momentum above 5.5. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe MACD score is only 1.9 and the setup is range-bound with RSI at 44, so the buying has not yet led to a breakout. | ||
Revenue grew about 22% year over year, with $146.6M in the quarter ended July 2026 against $120.4M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should keep growing at 10% or better year over year toward the $105M next-quarter estimate.
CounterQuarterly revenue swings widely, from $163.97M in December 2025 to $118.6M in April 2026, and the next-quarter estimate of $105M is below the latest quarter.
Earnings are expected to decline about 85% from a cyclical peak, which is why the forward P/E is 171x against 25x trailing.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Forward earnings should fall by less than the feared 85%, keeping the forward P/E below 171x.
CounterA forward multiple of 171x on shrinking earnings means the shares are expensive on the earnings that analysts expect to follow the peak.
Price of $148.93 is 7.5% above the $137.70 analyst target, with about 5.6% downside to the $127.16 stop.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should rise toward the current price if earnings hold up.
CounterWith a negative reward-to-risk of -1.3 and earnings due in 3 days, a disappointing report has no valuation cushion.
Cash conversion is weak at 21% FCF to net income, flagged as an earnings quality red flag, although the Piotroski F-Score is a solid 7 of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF to net income should recover above 50% as working capital normalizes.
CounterGross margin scores 0.0 and the company relies on third-party suppliers in China, a concentration the 10-K flags as high risk.
Rising on-balance volume, a position above the 200-day average and institutional accumulation point to steady buying of the shares.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should stay above its 200-day average with momentum above 5.5.
CounterThe MACD score is only 1.9 and the setup is range-bound with RSI at 44, so the buying has not yet led to a breakout.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 4.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 3.9 |
| Current ratio | 7.8 |
| FCF quality | 1.7 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 21% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 9.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 4.8 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 3.6 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.6 |
| days to cover | 9.3 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.67
Upside
-8.7%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 47, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.67 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 8.4, and Momentum at 7.6; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.4, Quality at 4.5, and Value at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.67 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY from the current 22%.
- P2Cyclical Earnings Peak
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 250x from the current 171x.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $127.16 stop, a drop of more than 14.6% from $148.93.
- P4Weak Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 10% from the current 21%.
- P5Institutional Accumulation
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from the current 6.6.