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NHCNational HealthCare CorporationSell4.5·$191.81-0.16%
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National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $191.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings expected to decline ~95% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

National HealthCare Corporation operates skilled nursing facilities, assisted living, independent living, homecare/hospice, and behavioral health services across 9 states, primarily in the Southeast and Midwest. In fiscal 2025, 96.8% of net operating revenues came from... Read more

$191.81+4.8% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#26 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.95%
IncomeYield1.35%(5y avg 2.75%)Payout32.53%sustainable
Stop $178.38Target $200.96(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $191.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings expected to decline ~95% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-11
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~95% (cyclical peak)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.4
P/E (Fwd)446.8
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA15.9
Profit Mgn8.1%
ROE12.0%
Rev Growth2.2%
Beta0.67
Dividend1.35%
Rating analysts

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.46bullish
IV52%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.5
Value Rank
1.5
Quality Rank
5.8

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MDividend: 135.0%

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.0
Earnings Growth
3.9
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $176.75Resistance $205.06

Price Targets

$178
$201
A.Upside+4.8%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 447x vs trail 24x (18.3x)
! momentum at 4.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $191.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings expected to decline ~95% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $178.38. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

What is the NHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $200.96 (+4.8% upside). Prior stop was $178.38. Stop-loss: $178.38.

What are the risks of investing in NHC?

Earnings expected to decline ~95% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5.

Is NHC overvalued or undervalued?

National HealthCare Corporation trades at a P/E of 24.4 (forward 446.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

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What does National HealthCare Corporation do?National HealthCare Corporation operates skilled nursing facilities, assisted living, independent living,...

National HealthCare Corporation operates skilled nursing facilities, assisted living, independent living, homecare/hospice, and behavioral health services across 9 states, primarily in the Southeast and Midwest. In fiscal 2025, 96.8% of net operating revenues came from healthcare services; Medicare provided 31% and Medicaid 30% of net patient revenues. The company is purchasing 32 skilled nursing and 3 independent living facilities from NHI for $560M, resolving a disputed Master Lease.

Related stocks: ASTH (Astrana Health Inc.) · AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc) · THC (Tenet Healthcare Corporation) · UHS (Universal Health Services, Inc.) · ARDT (Ardent Health, Inc.)
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