TKO Group Holdings delivers 26% year-over-year revenue growth and exceptional free cash flow conversion of 367% relative to net income, but a 75% earnings miss rate over the last four quarters and an expensive forward price-to-earnings of 43x limit the conviction in this setup.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Revenue Growth→Stable
- Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) Stock Analysis
Communication Services · Entertainment
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $173.88 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
TKO Group Holdings owns UFC, WWE, PBR, IMG, and On Location, with properties reaching over 1 billion households in 210 countries and hosting more than 500 live events in 2025. Revenue comes from media rights licensing (long-term exclusive deals with Paramount+, Netflix, and... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $173.88 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
About TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
TKO Group Holdings' UFC, WWE, PBR, IMG, and On Location properties collectively reached over 1 billion households in 210 countries in 2025, hosting over 500 live events — including WrestleMania 41, which drew more than 118,000 Las Vegas attendees. A seven-year UFC exclusive U.S. deal with Paramount+ takes effect in 2026, and WWE's Raw has been on a 10-year exclusive Netflix global deal since January 2025. TKO completed the $3.25 billion Endeavor Asset Acquisition on February 28, 2025, adding IMG, On Location, and PBR.
TKO monetizes across four revenue channels: media rights licensing to broadcasters and streaming platforms under long-term agreements (typically 3 to 10 years per contract), live event ticket sales and site fees, sponsorship and partnership commissions (including IMG's fee-based rights management for over 300 sports federations), and consumer product royalties from agreements with EA Sports, Take-Two Interactive, Mattel, and Fanatics. UFC athletes are independent contractors — approximately 650 representing more than 70 countries as of December 31, 2025 — allowing roster flexibility without traditional franchise labor obligations. WWE and UFC fanbases skew younger than traditional U.S. sports leagues: median ages of 35 and 37, respectively, versus 38 to 47 for other major leagues, making the properties attractive to sponsors seeking those demographics. The company operates without a franchise system or independent promoters, enabling unilateral decisions on event scheduling, venue selection, and content production.
Show full overview
TKO's content revenue depends on exclusive long-term distribution agreements with a small number of streaming and broadcast partners. The Netflix Raw agreement carries an initial 10-year term with Netflix able to opt out after five years, potentially triggering renegotiation risk no earlier than 2030. The seven-year Paramount UFC deal, beginning 2026, runs through approximately 2032 for all U.S. distribution. The risk factor summary acknowledges that failure to maintain or replace these key agreements could adversely affect the company's ability to distribute content and could weigh on revenue from the media rights segment, which is the highest-margin component of TKO's four-channel revenue model.
See also: Communication Services · Entertainment
From TKO Group Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Ahead of TKO Group (TKO) Q2 Earnings: Get Ready With Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Ahead of TKO Group (TKO) Q2 Earnings: Get Ready With Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS TKO|TKO Group Holdings Inc|Price:183.152|Chg%:-4.198 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS TKO Group (TKO) Expected to Announce Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS TKO Group Holdings (TKO) Surpasses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMcounterpartyParamount10-K Item 1: 'UFC announced a new seven-year partnership with Paramount...to become the exclusive home of all UFC events in the U.S.'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyNetflix10-K Item 1: 'Since January 2025, Netflix has been the exclusive global home to Raw.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $173.88 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $165.04. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $208.47 (+19.9% upside). Prior stop was $165.04. Stop-loss: $165.04.
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2).
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 60.8 (forward 37.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover TKO with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $232.
What does TKO Group Holdings, Inc. do?TKO Group Holdings owns UFC, WWE, PBR, IMG, and On Location, with properties reaching over 1 billion households in 210...
TKO Group Holdings owns UFC, WWE, PBR, IMG, and On Location, with properties reaching over 1 billion households in 210 countries and hosting more than 500 live events in 2025. Revenue comes from media rights licensing (long-term exclusive deals with Paramount+, Netflix, and ESPN), live events and hospitality, brand partnerships, and consumer product licensing. The company completed the $3.25 billion Endeavor Asset Acquisition on February 28, 2025.