Value
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.0 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.61
NFLX · Why this verdict
Why Netflix (NFLX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 48%
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 194% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.2 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 20, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 39%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $120,315,322 (0.035% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 9.2 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.4 |
| support resistance | 8.4 |
| 52w position | 2.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 6.8 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $40
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:5.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:38d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- NEWS:LEGAL
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
5.51
Upside
+27.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 20, MACD bearish
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (8.5) with weak momentum (3.4)
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.49>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:5.5>=1.5. Top dim: Quality at 8.5; weakest: Momentum at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.5, Growth at 8.3, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Insider at 3.9, and Catalyst at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.51 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.