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NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Sell5.4·$19.48+2.20%
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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.48 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.6): -1.5.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings operates three cruise brands (Norwegian, Oceania, Regent) with 34 ships and ~71,400 berths serving worldwide destinations. Revenue comes from passenger ticket fares and onboard spending across upscale and ultra-luxury demographics; the company... Read more

$19.48-1.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#11 of 15 Travel Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-17.15%
Stop $18.07Target $19.22(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$21.08+8.2%24 analysts
$19.22our TP
$19.48price
$21.08mean
$14
$32

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.48 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.6): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 6.6): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.4
P/E (Fwd)9.4
Mkt Cap$8.8B
EV/EBITDA9.4
Profit Mgn5.7%
ROE29.5%
Rev Growth9.6%
Beta1.91
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.46bearish
IV69%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-27Item 1.01MEDIUM
    Cooperation Agreement signed with Elliott Investment Management on March 26, 2026; Elliott secured 4 board seats (Cohen, Cruz, MacDonald, Lansberry) effective March 31, 2026, plus board reconstitution.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02MEDIUM
    John W. Chidsey employment agreement formalized as President and CEO effective February 12, 2026. Base salary $1.715M, target bonus 175% of base. Four-year initial term through March 1, 2030.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    John W. Chidsey appointed President and CEO effective immediately on February 12, 2026. Former independent director; succeeds prior leadership. No prior CEO successor named in filing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.4
Bollinger
1.8
52w Position
4.3

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
1.5
Earnings History
3.3
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
6.0
Estimates down -5.3% (30d)Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.33%=MODERATEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.2>=5.5NEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.53Resistance $19.61

Price Targets

$18
$19
A.Upside-1.3%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NCLH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.48 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.6): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Prior stop was $18.07. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the NCLH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.22 (-1.1% upside). Prior stop was $18.07. Stop-loss: $18.07.

What are the risks of investing in NCLH?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 6.6): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is NCLH overvalued or undervalued?

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings trades at a P/E of 15.4 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NCLH?

30 analysts cover NCLH with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings do?Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings operates three cruise brands (Norwegian, Oceania, Regent) with 34 ships and ~71,400...

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings operates three cruise brands (Norwegian, Oceania, Regent) with 34 ships and ~71,400 berths serving worldwide destinations. Revenue comes from passenger ticket fares and onboard spending across upscale and ultra-luxury demographics; the company carries substantial debt and was subject to activist pressure from Elliott Investment Management in 2026.

Related stocks: TCOM (Trip.com Group Limited) · EXPE (Expedia Group, Inc.) · PRSU (Pursuit Attractions and Hospita) · TNL (Travel Leisure Co.) · CCL (Carnival Corporation Ltd.)
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