Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 7.5 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.91
- ▸Attractively valued
NCLH · Why this verdict
Why Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.8 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.6 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 0.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 30%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -264% FCF/NI
Growth
4.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
Insider
7.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $29,163,646 (0.339% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.6 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 3.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 5.2 |
| implied vol | 2.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.6 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 18% short, quality 7.5
- ▸High IV: 66%
- ▸Above max pain $10
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -5.3% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:52d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (3)
- INSIDER:0.34%=MODERATE
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.0>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.05
Upside
+0.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 78
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.91>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.05 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Insider at 7.1, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.2, Technical at 3.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.