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RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.Sell5.9·$294.80+2.38%
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Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $294.80 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.

Royal Caribbean Cruises operates three Global Brands—Royal Caribbean (29 ships, ~111,000 berths), Celebrity Cruises (15 ships, ~38,900 berths), and Silversea (12 ships, ~5,500 berths)—plus a 50% JV interest in TUI Cruises/Hapag-Lloyd Cruises, with a combined fleet of 69 ships... Read more

$294.80+2.8% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#5 of 15 Travel Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-0.25%
IncomeYield1.70%(5y avg 2.52%)Payout25.93%sustainable
Stop $273.77Target $302.68(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$336.31+14.1%26 analysts
$302.68our TP
$294.80price
$336.31mean
$255
$425

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $294.80 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.2), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.9
P/E (Fwd)14.7
Mkt Cap$79.0B
EV/EBITDA14.6
Profit Mgn24.4%
ROE49.6%
Rev Growth11.3%
Beta1.78
Dividend1.70%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.69bullish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$85-71.2% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
    On February 10, 2026, the Board appointed Christopher Wiernicki (former Chairman and CEO of American Bureau of Shipping, 2011-2025) as a director. No committee assignments specified.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.7
Bollinger
1.6
52w Position
6.3
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $230.90Resistance $298.83

Price Targets

$274
$303
A.Upside+2.7%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.8% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RCL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $294.80 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $273.77. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RCL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $302.68 (+2.8% upside). Prior stop was $273.77. Stop-loss: $273.77.

What are the risks of investing in RCL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.2), Negative free cash flow.

Is RCL overvalued or undervalued?

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. trades at a P/E of 17.9 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RCL?

33 analysts cover RCL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $336.

What does Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. do?Royal Caribbean Cruises operates three Global Brands—Royal Caribbean (29 ships, ~111,000 berths), Celebrity Cruises (15...

Royal Caribbean Cruises operates three Global Brands—Royal Caribbean (29 ships, ~111,000 berths), Celebrity Cruises (15 ships, ~38,900 berths), and Silversea (12 ships, ~5,500 berths)—plus a 50% JV interest in TUI Cruises/Hapag-Lloyd Cruises, with a combined fleet of 69 ships and ~179,720 berths. Revenue comes from passenger ticket sales and onboard spending; the company sells primarily to North American, European, and international consumers through travel advisors and direct channels. Royal Caribbean is the world's largest cruise vacation brand by berths.

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