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MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions HoldSell5.1·$381.00+1.67%
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MACOM Technology Solutions Hold (MTSI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $381.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Expensive valuation.

MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog and mixed-signal semiconductors for Industrial & Defense, Data Center, and Telecom markets from facilities across North America, Europe, and Asia. Products — amplifiers, optical DSPs, ICs, and RF components — are sold to... Read more

$381.00+8.1% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#27 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield0.28%
Stop $353.28Target $410.52(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$398.36+4.6%14 analysts
$410.52our TP
$381.00price
$398.36mean
$345
$450

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $381.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Expensive valuation. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)161.0
P/E (Fwd)55.5
Mkt Cap$29.0B
EV/EBITDA122.3
Profit Mgn16.5%
ROE13.5%
Rev Growth22.5%
Beta1.66
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.08bearish
IV100%elevated
Max Pain$180-52.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop reseller (12.4% of revenue)12%
    10-K Item 1: 'One of our resellers accounted for 12.4% and 11.3% of our revenue in fiscal years 2025 and 2024, respectively'
  • MEDIUMCustomersecond reseller (11.2% of revenue)11%
    10-K Item 1: 'A second reseller accounted for 11.2% of our revenue in fiscal year 2025 but did not exceed 10% in fiscal years 2024 and 2023.'
  • MEDIUMGeographicChina28%
    10-K Item 1A: 'fiscal year 2025 sales to customers in China and the Asia Pacific region accounted for 28.4% and 11.5% of total fiscal year 2025 sales, respectively'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
2.1
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
5.8
Forward P/E: 55.5xPEG: 1.29Expensive valuation

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.6
Growth Rank
5.0
Quality Rank
6.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
1.1
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $333.15Resistance $418.90

Price Targets

$353
$411
A.Upside+7.7%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.8% upside)
! momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTSI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $381.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Expensive valuation. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $353.28. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MTSI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $410.52 (+8.1% upside). Prior stop was $353.28. Stop-loss: $353.28.

What are the risks of investing in MTSI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

Is MTSI overvalued or undervalued?

MACOM Technology Solutions Hold trades at a P/E of 161.0 (forward 55.5). TrendMatrix value score: 2.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MTSI?

22 analysts cover MTSI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $398.

What does MACOM Technology Solutions Hold do?MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog and mixed-signal semiconductors for Industrial & Defense,...

MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog and mixed-signal semiconductors for Industrial & Defense, Data Center, and Telecom markets from facilities across North America, Europe, and Asia. Products — amplifiers, optical DSPs, ICs, and RF components — are sold to 6,000+ end customers, with two resellers each exceeding 10% of fiscal 2025 revenue.

Related stocks: CRDO (Credo Technology Group Holding ) · SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology Corpo) · ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.) · ALAB (Astera Labs, Inc.) · MCHP (Microchip Technology Incorporat)
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