Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.3 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 6.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.02
- ▸Attractively valued
MPC · Why this verdict
Why Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.2 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.4 |
| Net margin | 1.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 5.7 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 27%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 76% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
4.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.1 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.43 (n=2)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $1,953,272 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.2 |
| quality rank | 7.6 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 4.0 |
| put call | 4.6 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| beta | 9.9 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 148.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:50d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
-1.00
Upside
-8.4%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.0, Sentiment at 6.7, and Catalyst at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Quality at 4.2, and Peer rank at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.