Mueller Industries is a high-quality metal fabricator (26% ROE, 17% margins, wide moat, 32% YoY growth) trading at a forward P/E of 11.6x after a sharp pullback. The price is 22.5% below the analyst target, but the stock is oversold in a weak trend and has just missed earnings.
Thesis pillars
- High Returns Wide Moat→Stable
- Strong Revenue Growth→Stable
- Recent Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Metal Fabrication
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $55.78 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Mueller Industries, Inc. (the Company) is a leading manufacturer of copper, brass, and aluminum products. The range of products we manufacture is broad: copper tube and fittings; line sets; steel nipples; brass rod, bar, and shapes; aluminum and brass forgings; aluminum impact... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $55.78 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 94d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — Mueller Industries, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Is Mueller Industries Inc (MLI) Overvalued After 5.7% Rally? GF - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Mueller Industries, Inc. $MLI Stock Acquired by Baker Ellis Asset Management LLC - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS MLI Reports Strong Revenue Growth and Positive Outlook - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Mueller Industries Shares Rise After Higher Fiscal Q2 Results, Northcoast Research Upgrade - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS Is Mueller Industries Inc (MLI) Undervalued After Q2 Earnings? E - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:45Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-08-10Item 5.02MEDIUMItem 8.01 | Other Events. On August 6, 2026 the Registrant issued a press release announcing that its Board has declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of 17.5 cents per share on its common stock. The dividend will be paid September 18, 2026 to shareholders of record on September 4, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $55.78 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $52.24. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $66.30 (+18.9% upside). Prior stop was $52.24. Stop-loss: $52.24.
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.
Mueller Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.3 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
6 analysts cover MLI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $78.
What does Mueller Industries, Inc. do?Mueller Industries, Inc. (the Company) is a leading manufacturer of copper, brass, and aluminum products. The range of...
Mueller Industries, Inc. (the Company) is a leading manufacturer of copper, brass, and aluminum products. The range of products we manufacture is broad: copper tube and fittings; line sets; steel nipples; brass rod, bar, and shapes; aluminum and brass forgings; aluminum impact extrusions; refrigeration valves and fittings; compressed gas valves; pressure vessels; insulated flexible duct systems; and high-quality wire and cable solutions.