Commercial Metals trades at an attractive forward multiple of 11.1x with 22% year-over-year earnings growth, but a mixed earnings track record with the most recent quarter a miss, a deeply unfavorable risk/reward geometry with only 1.7% of room to the near-term ceiling, and earnings results due in nine days create a cautious hold posture.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation With Growth↓Deteriorating
- Inconsistent Earnings Execution↓Deteriorating
- Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Oct 16, 2026
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Metal Fabrication
Sell if holding. At $65.70, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).
CMC provides early-stage construction solutions that support the site preparation through foundational phases of modern infrastructure and building projects. Through an extensive manufacturing network primarily located in the United States ("U.S.") and Central Europe, with... Read more
Sell if holding. At $65.70, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 68d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — Commercial Metals Company
Latest news
- NEWS Commercial Metals Keeps Quarterly Dividend at $0.20 a Share, Payable July 15 to Holders of Record July 6 - marketscreene — marketscreener.com neutral
- NEWS CMC declares $0.20 quarterly dividend, 247th consecutive - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS CMC declares $0.20 quarterly dividend, 247th consecutive By Investing.com - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada positive
- NEWS Commercial Metals Co (CMC) Dividends & Stock Splits: Historical Payouts and Event Timeline - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Form 4 Commercial Metals Comp: Brian N. Halloran (SVP, N. America Steel Group) For: 9 October - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada neutral
Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:45Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $65.70, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Prior stop was $61.10. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $67.86 (+3.3% upside). Prior stop was $61.10. Stop-loss: $61.10.
Thin upside margin: 3.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Commercial Metals Company trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover CMC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $78.
What does Commercial Metals Company do?CMC provides early-stage construction solutions that support the site preparation through foundational phases of modern...
CMC provides early-stage construction solutions that support the site preparation through foundational phases of modern infrastructure and building projects. Through an extensive manufacturing network primarily located in the United States ("U.S.") and Central Europe, with strategic operations in the United Kingdom, Europe and Asia, CMC serves infrastructure, non-residential, residential, industrial and energy markets.