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CRSCarpenter Technology CorporatioBuy Wait6.0·$498.66-6.02%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A high-quality industrial compounder with four consecutive earnings beats and strong financial health metrics that has already exceeded its price target; the elevated forward earnings multiple of 44.5 times, overbought technical readings, and below-average free cash flow conversion suggest the near-term setup favors patience over new capital deployment.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Earnings CompounderDeteriorating
  • Stretched Valuation Above TargetImproving
  • Overbought Technicals Falling VolumeDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Carpenter Technology Corporatio (CRS) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Metal Fabrication

Earnings in 0 days (2026-07-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $414.98. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $498.66. Engine's entry $414.98 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Carpenter Technology Corporation, founded in 1889, is engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of specialty metals. As used throughout this report, unless the context requires otherwise, the terms "Carpenter," "Carpenter Technology," "Company," "Registrant,"... Read more

$498.66-1.3% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#4 of 11 Metal Fabrication
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.14%
IncomeYield0.14%(5y avg 1.27%)Payout8.42%sustainable
Entry $414.98(support + ATR (held))Stop $360.28Target $613.47(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$571.33+14.6%9 analysts
$613.47our TP
$498.66price
$571.33mean
$400
$722

Wait for pullback to $414.98. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $498.66. Engine's entry $414.98 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-30
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 2026today· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)58.8
P/E (Fwd)41.1
Mkt Cap$26.4B
EV/EBITDA35.0
Profit Mgn15.8%
ROE24.9%
Rev Growth11.6%
Beta1.22
Dividend0.14%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.47bullish
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$470-5.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.1
Forward Pe
2.7
Analyst Target
4.0
Ps
4.3
Peg Ratio
7.8
Forward P/E: 41.1xPEG: 0.87
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $472.29Resistance $625.99

Price Targets

$360
$415
$613
A.Upside-1.3%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.3% upside)
! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CRS stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $414.98. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $498.66. Engine's entry $414.98 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $613.47 (+23.0%), stop $360.28 (−38.4%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CRS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $613.47 (-1.3% upside). Target $613.47 (+23.0%), stop $360.28 (−38.4%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $360.28.

What are the risks of investing in CRS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is CRS overvalued or undervalued?

Carpenter Technology Corporatio trades at a P/E of 58.8 (forward 41.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about CRS?

15 analysts cover CRS with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $571.

What does Carpenter Technology Corporatio do?Carpenter Technology Corporation, founded in 1889, is engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of...

Carpenter Technology Corporation, founded in 1889, is engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of specialty metals. As used throughout this report, unless the context requires otherwise, the terms "Carpenter," "Carpenter Technology," "Company," "Registrant," "Issuer," "we" and "our" refer to Carpenter Technology Corporation.

Related stocks: MLI (Mueller Industries, Inc.) · CMC (Commercial Metals Company) · GPGI (GPGI, Inc.) · WOR (Worthington Enterprises, Inc.) · ESAB (ESAB Corporation)
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