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MIAXMiami International Holdings, IBuy Wait6.3·$31.98
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Miami International Holdings has delivered three consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 28% above consensus with strong growth metrics and a healthy balance sheet, yet the stock sits just below its near-term price target with less than 1% headroom and elevated leverage at a debt-to-equity of 2.1 — the reward-to-risk geometry does not support new capital at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Outperformance Streak→Stable
  • Growth Profile Above Peers→Stable
  • Uptrend Pullback Accumulation↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 6, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Miami International Holdings, I (MIAX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Earnings today — results expected after close (2026-10-29). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $30.77. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern, below 200-day MA (death cross), recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $31.98. Engine's entry $30.77 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Miami International Holdings operates four U.S. options exchanges, a U.S. equities platform, MIAX Futures exchange and clearing house, and international listing venues including the Bermuda Stock Exchange and TISE in Guernsey. In 2025, multi-listed U.S. options volume reached... Read more

$31.98+24.6% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#13 of 50 Capital Markets
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield6.54%
Entry $30.77(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $28.62Target $39.85(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst consensus$45.80+43.2%5 analysts
$39.85our TP
$31.98price
$45.80mean
$60

Wait for pullback to $30.77. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern, below 200-day MA (death cross), recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $31.98. Engine's entry $30.77 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 3/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Miami International Holdings, I

About Miami International Holdings, I

Miami International Holdings' MIAX Exchanges processed 2.4 billion multi-listed U.S. options contracts in 2025 — a 41.1% increase over 2024 — capturing a 17.1% market share and ranking as the 13th largest global derivatives exchange operator by FIA contract count as of December 31, 2025. Net transaction and clearing fees represented 60.6% of revenues less cost of revenues in 2025, with non-transaction fees including market data and access fees accounting for 39.4%.

The company generates fee revenue across four models: transaction and clearing fees from four U.S. options exchanges (MIAX Options, Pearl, Emerald, and Sapphire), MIAX Pearl Equities, and MIAX Futures; market data subscriptions; membership and access fees; and international listing fees from BSX and TISE. Each exchange uses a distinct allocation and pricing model — Pro-Rata, Maker-Taker, and Taker-Maker structures — to attract different order-flow segments. Dorman Trading, the company's FCM subsidiary, competes on price and execution quality with larger, better-capitalized FCMs. A ten-year exclusive license with Bloomberg Index Services, signed in July 2024, covers the Bloomberg 500, Bloomberg US Large Cap Volatility, and Bloomberg US 100 indices; certain Bloomberg Products were planned for launch in the second quarter of 2026, representing a new proprietary product pipeline not available to competing venues in North and South America.

Show full overview

The company's non-transaction fees — including market data and connectivity fees — are subject to SEC review on the MIAX Exchanges, and ongoing industry challenges to the Consolidated Audit Trail (CAT) funding model mean that SROs, including the MIAX Exchanges, may continue to incur significant CAT costs without reimbursement. The company's January 2026 sale of 90% of MIAXdx to a Robinhood-SIG joint venture reduced its CFTC-regulated crypto derivatives exposure, retaining only a 10% stake in the renamed Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC.

See also: Financial Services · Capital Markets

From Miami International Holdings, I's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 2026Earnings today — results expected after close· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
High-quality business
Risks
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.0
P/E (Fwd)17.2
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA11.0
Profit Mgn9.7%
ROE18.1%
Rev Growth18.3%
Beta—
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.11bearish
IV70%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-27Item 5.02LOW
    Eric Sites elected as a director to the Board, effective April 24, 2026, to fill an existing vacancy until the 2026 Annual Meeting. No committee appointments. No family relationships or reportable transactions with the company cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-09Item 5.02MEDIUM
    April 9, 2026: Board member Murray Stahl passed away. No successor named. The company expressed gratitude for his dedication and service.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOW
    March 24, 2026: Lee Becker informed the Board he would not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting; no disagreement cited. Jill E. Sommers elected to fill an existing vacancy, effective March 25, 2026, until the 2026 Annual Meeting.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.2
Bollinger
4.9
Support Resistance
5.2
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5INSIDER 0.80%=HEAVYDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
57 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $29.06Resistance $35.15

Price Targets

$29
$31
$40
A.Upside+24.6%
A.R:R2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings today - binary event risk
! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Insider activity: 0.80%=heavy

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (Earnings today — results expected after close)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MIAX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $30.77. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern, below 200-day MA (death cross), recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $31.98. Engine's entry $30.77 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Target $39.85 (+24.6%), stop $28.62 (−11.7%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Score 6.3/10, high confidence.

What is the MIAX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.85 (+24.6% upside). Target $39.85 (+24.6%), stop $28.62 (−11.7%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Stop-loss: $28.62.

What are the risks of investing in MIAX?

Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MIAX overvalued or undervalued?

Miami International Holdings, I trades at a P/E of 32.0 (forward 17.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MIAX?

13 analysts cover MIAX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $46.

What does Miami International Holdings, I do?Miami International Holdings operates four U.S. options exchanges, a U.S. equities platform, MIAX Futures exchange and...

Miami International Holdings operates four U.S. options exchanges, a U.S. equities platform, MIAX Futures exchange and clearing house, and international listing venues including the Bermuda Stock Exchange and TISE in Guernsey. In 2025, multi-listed U.S. options volume reached 2.4 billion contracts (41.1% increase from 2024), with net transaction and clearing fees representing 60.6% of revenues less cost of revenues.

Related stocks: PIPR (Piper Sandler Companies) · MRX (Marex Group Limited) · LCLN (Lincoln International, Inc.) · LPLA (LPL Financial Holdings Inc.) · NMR (Nomura Holdings Inc)
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