Value
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 6.4 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.16
MGEE · Why this verdict
Why MGE Energy (MGEE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 4.3 |
| Op margin | 9.4 |
| Net margin | 9.5 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -127% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 5.2 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.7 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $28,997 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 7.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| beta | 8.7 |
| debt equity | 6.8 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.5 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 251.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $76.38 has reached target $75.70. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:58d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-3.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-3.06
Upside
-16.9%
Downside
5.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0; weakest: Technical at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0, Value at 5.7, and Momentum at 5.7; the weakest are Technical at 3.1, Insider at 5.0, and Growth at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.