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MECMayville Engineering Company, ISell4.7·$32.52-1.71%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Mayville Engineering screens cheap on a growth-adjusted basis with a recent earnings beat streak, but heavy insider selling, weak momentum, and quality metrics well below the engine's floor keep the exit signal in place.

Thesis pillars

  • Cheap Growth Adjusted ValuationStable
  • Heavy Insider SellingStable
  • Momentum WeaknessStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Mayville Engineering Company, I (MEC) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Metal Fabrication

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Mayville Engineering Company is a vertically integrated contract manufacturer providing design, fabrication, aluminum extrusion, coating, and assembly services to OEM customers across commercial vehicles, construction equipment, powersports, data centers, and agriculture,... Read more

$32.52+16.5% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#11 of 11 Metal Fabrication
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield1.61%
Stop $30.50Target $37.98(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$33.70+3.6%5 analysts
$37.98our TP
$32.52price
$33.70mean
$30
$40

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Mayville Engineering Company, I

About Mayville Engineering Company, I

Mayville Engineering Company runs 27 U.S. manufacturing facilities across nine states, totaling approximately three and a half million square feet, serving OEM customers in heavy- and medium-duty commercial vehicles, construction and access equipment, powersports, data centers, and agriculture. The company's top customer, PACCAR, represented 13.6% of 2025 net sales, while its top ten customers combined accounted for 62.3%, and the company employs approximately 2,400 people.

Mayville earns revenue as a value-added contract manufacturer, taking OEM parts from design and prototyping through fabrication, aluminum extrusion, coating, and assembly, then passing through commodity-price swings via contractual mechanisms that the company says limits its exposure to tariffs and raw-material volatility. Its more than 40-year relationship with John Deere, which generated $54 million, or 10.0% of 2025 revenue across more than 65 platforms, illustrates how the company expands wallet share within existing accounts rather than relying on new-logo growth alone. Because most customer arrangements consist of open-ended requirement contracts rather than firm-volume commitments, Mayville depends on OEM production schedules and forecasts that customers can revise or cancel with limited notice. The company has also pursued acquisitions, including Accu-Fab, to build out capacity in the data center and critical power end market, an area of increasing capital allocation focus.

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Mayville's growing bet on the data center and critical power end market via the Accu-Fab acquisition ties an increasing share of future results to hyperscaler capital-spending cycles, a historically more volatile demand source than the company's legacy commercial-vehicle and agriculture business. The 10-K also flags that OEM customers could choose to insource fabrication work currently outsourced to Mayville, or shift production quantities with little notice since most supply arrangements lack firm long-term volume commitments - a structural risk distinct from any single customer's share of sales.

See also: Industrials · Metal Fabrication

From Mayville Engineering Company, I's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202628d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (62.3%)
Target reached (-10.1% upside)
Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)29.3
Mkt Cap$877M
EV/EBITDA25.7
Profit Mgn-2.9%
ROE-6.8%
Rev Growth6.8%
Beta1.22
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.03bullish
IV70%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop ten customers62%
    10-K Item 1: 'our top customer and top ten customers accounted for 13.6% and 62.3% of net sales, respectively'
  • LOWCustomerPACCAR14%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our largest customers in 2025 included PACCAR Inc. and John Deere which accounted for 13.6% and 10.0% of our net sales, respectively'
  • LOWCustomerJohn Deere10%
    10-K Item 1: 'we provide John Deere, a leading customer, with 2025 net sales accounting for 10.0% of our total revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -2.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Moat
3.6
Piotroski F
5.6
Current Ratio
5.9
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Growth Rank
1.0
Value Rank
6.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.32%=HEAVYNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 28d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $31.44Resistance $38.76

Price Targets

$31
$38
A.Upside+16.8%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (28d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MEC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $30.50. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MEC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.98 (+16.5% upside). Prior stop was $30.50. Stop-loss: $30.50.

What are the risks of investing in MEC?

Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (62.3%); Target reached (-10.1% upside); Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0).

Is MEC overvalued or undervalued?

Mayville Engineering Company, I trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 29.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MEC?

9 analysts cover MEC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $34.

What does Mayville Engineering Company, I do?Mayville Engineering Company is a vertically integrated contract manufacturer providing design, fabrication, aluminum...

Mayville Engineering Company is a vertically integrated contract manufacturer providing design, fabrication, aluminum extrusion, coating, and assembly services to OEM customers across commercial vehicles, construction equipment, powersports, data centers, and agriculture, operating 27 facilities across nine states from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. In 2025, the company's top customer, PACCAR, accounted for 13.6% of net sales, its top ten customers made up 62.3%, and long-standing customer John Deere contributed 10.0% of revenue.

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