Value
5.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 29.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.12
MEC · Why this verdict
Why Mayville Engineering Company, I (MEC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Mayville Engineering trades at a forward P/E of 28.6x, but with a PEG ratio of just 0.12, the multiple looks cheap relative to its growth trajectory. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay low as the stock re-rates or growth is sustained. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality score sits well below the engine's 4.0 floor, suggesting the cheap growth-adjusted multiple may not be enough to offset broader quality concerns. | ||
Insiders have sold a net $2.8 million over the past 90 days, equal to 0.331% of market cap, flagged as heavy severity per the engine's insider gate. Insider breakdown | Insider selling as a percentage of market cap should fall back toward more typical levels. | →Stable |
| CounterNotable-but-not-extreme selling at a mid-cap industrial name can reflect routine compensation-related sales rather than a strong negative signal. | ||
Momentum has weakened to a reading of 3.1, below the engine's 4.5 threshold, consistent with the negative price momentum flagged among the company's key risks. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum score should recover above the engine's 4.5 threshold. | →Stable |
| CounterThe technical score itself remains relatively firm, suggesting the broader price structure hasn't broken down even as short-term momentum lags. | ||
Mayville Engineering has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 reported quarters, with an outsized average surprise driven by one very large beat. Earnings | The company should continue beating or meeting EPS estimates at the next print. | →Stable |
| CounterThe extreme average surprise is disproportionately driven by a single quarter's outlier result on a tiny estimate base, making the historical average an unreliable guide to future performance. | ||
Mayville Engineering trades at a forward P/E of 28.6x, but with a PEG ratio of just 0.12, the multiple looks cheap relative to its growth trajectory.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay low as the stock re-rates or growth is sustained.
CounterQuality score sits well below the engine's 4.0 floor, suggesting the cheap growth-adjusted multiple may not be enough to offset broader quality concerns.
Insiders have sold a net $2.8 million over the past 90 days, equal to 0.331% of market cap, flagged as heavy severity per the engine's insider gate.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling as a percentage of market cap should fall back toward more typical levels.
CounterNotable-but-not-extreme selling at a mid-cap industrial name can reflect routine compensation-related sales rather than a strong negative signal.
Momentum has weakened to a reading of 3.1, below the engine's 4.5 threshold, consistent with the negative price momentum flagged among the company's key risks.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above the engine's 4.5 threshold.
CounterThe technical score itself remains relatively firm, suggesting the broader price structure hasn't broken down even as short-term momentum lags.
Mayville Engineering has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 reported quarters, with an outsized average surprise driven by one very large beat.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should continue beating or meeting EPS estimates at the next print.
CounterThe extreme average surprise is disproportionately driven by a single quarter's outlier result on a tiny estimate base, making the historical average an unreliable guide to future performance.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mayville Engineering screens cheap on a growth-adjusted basis with a recent earnings beat streak, but heavy insider selling, weak momentum, and quality metrics well below the engine's floor keep the exit signal in place.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.3 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,830,441 (0.323% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
1.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 0.5 |
| growth rank | 1.0 |
Technical
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.3 |
| support resistance | 8.4 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 9.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.7 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸High IV: 70%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.32%=HEAVY
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.84
Upside
-10.1%
Downside
12.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 28d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Technical at 7.6 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.6, Catalyst at 7.5, and Growth at 7.1; the weakest are Peer rank at 1.9, Quality at 1.9, and Momentum at 2.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.84 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Growth Adjusted Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 0.5 from the current 0.12.
- P2Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a percentage of market cap falls below 0.15% from the current 0.331%.
- P3Momentum Weakness
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5, recovering from the current reading of 3.1.
- P4Earnings Beat Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the next earnings print.