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GPGIGPGI, Inc.Sell5.9·$14.59+13.98%
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GPGI, Inc. (GPGI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Metal Fabrication

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.59: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 12.67; Below-average business quality.

GPGI (formerly CompoSecure) is a permanent capital platform owning CompoSecure (~75%+ global metal payment card market share, 32M+ cards delivered in 2025, customers include American Express, JPMorgan Chase, Capital One) and Husky Holdings (injection molding equipment for... Read more

$14.59+16.7% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#3 of 9 Metal Fabrication
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-2.20%
IncomeYield0.08%Payout0.00%sustainable
Stop $13.55Target $17.00(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$20.00+37.1%2 analysts
$17.00our TP
$14.59price
$20.00mean
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.59: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 12.67; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 10, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)10.0
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA-49.4
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-25.9%
Rev Growth
Beta0.91
Dividend0.08%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C12.67bearish
IV139%elevated
Max Pain$20+37.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.1
52w Position
0.9
Gap
3.0
Extreme gap up (8.2%) - may pull back

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Current Ratio
3.7
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.2
Cash-burning: FCF -340738% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Volatile — 5.0% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Days To Cover
0.3
Short Interest
1.2
Max Pain Risk
7.0
Beta
7.5
High short interest justified: 23%Elevated put/call: 12.67High IV: 139%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesA.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.22Resistance $14.62

Price Targets

$14
$17
A.Upside+16.5%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPGI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.59: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 12.67; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Prior stop was $13.55. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GPGI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.00 (+16.7% upside). Prior stop was $13.55. Stop-loss: $13.55.

What are the risks of investing in GPGI?

Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0).

Is GPGI overvalued or undervalued?

GPGI, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GPGI?

8 analysts cover GPGI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $20.

What does GPGI, Inc. do?GPGI (formerly CompoSecure) is a permanent capital platform owning CompoSecure (~75%+ global metal payment card market...

GPGI (formerly CompoSecure) is a permanent capital platform owning CompoSecure (~75%+ global metal payment card market share, 32M+ cards delivered in 2025, customers include American Express, JPMorgan Chase, Capital One) and Husky Holdings (injection molding equipment for food/packaging/medical, ~4,000 customers in 140 countries, acquired Jan 2026). Husky generates ~65% of revenue from recurring aftermarket molds, parts, and services.

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