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MDPediatrix Medical Group, Inc.Hold5.9·$23.66+5.30%
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Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (32.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Pediatrix Medical Group provides physician services in newborn, maternal-fetal, and pediatric subspecialty care through approximately 2,295 affiliated physicians across 37 states, primarily staffing hospital-based NICUs. Revenue is earned from hospital and third-party payor... Read more

$23.66+0.9% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#4 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield8.87%
Stop $22.14Target $23.87(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$23.17-2.1%6 analysts
$23.87our TP
$23.66price
$23.17mean
$19
$27

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (32.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202656d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (32.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.9
P/E (Fwd)9.5
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA8.0
Profit Mgn9.0%
ROE20.9%
Rev Growth3.9%
Beta0.70
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.75bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$13-47.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTexas32%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Texas accounted for approximately 32% of our net revenue in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-07Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders approved the Second Amended and Restated 2008 Incentive Compensation Plan at the 2026 Annual Meeting, increasing shares available by 8,000,000. Routine compensatory arrangement amendment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.96Resistance $24.36

Price Targets

$22
$24
A.Upside+0.9%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (32.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $23.87 (+0.9%), stop $22.14 (−6.9%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $23.87 (+0.9% upside). Target $23.87 (+0.9%), stop $22.14 (−6.9%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $22.14.

What are the risks of investing in MD?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (32.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Is MD overvalued or undervalued?

Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.9 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MD?

15 analysts cover MD with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $23.

What does Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. do?Pediatrix Medical Group provides physician services in newborn, maternal-fetal, and pediatric subspecialty care through...

Pediatrix Medical Group provides physician services in newborn, maternal-fetal, and pediatric subspecialty care through approximately 2,295 affiliated physicians across 37 states, primarily staffing hospital-based NICUs. Revenue is earned from hospital and third-party payor reimbursement; Texas accounted for approximately 32% of net revenue in 2025.

Related stocks: ASTH (Astrana Health Inc.) · ARDT (Ardent Health, Inc.) · AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc) · CON (Concentra Group Holdings Parent) · UHS (Universal Health Services, Inc.)
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