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MCOMoody's CorporationSell5.4·$447.85+1.36%
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Moody's Corporation (MCO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $447.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.7%.

In a world shaped by increasingly interconnected risks, Moody's data, insights, and innovative technologies help customers develop a holistic view of their world and unlock opportunities. Moody's offerings are distinguished by our vast proprietary and curated data and validated... Read more

$447.85+7.7% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#10 of 11 Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.90%
IncomeYield0.92%(5y avg 0.80%)Payout27.62%sustainable
Stop $426.03Target $482.40(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$536.00+19.7%20 analysts
$482.40our TP
$447.85price
$536.00mean
$610

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $447.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.7%. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.7%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.2
P/E (Fwd)24.1
Mkt Cap$78.2B
EV/EBITDA22.1
Profit Mgn31.7%
ROE71.4%
Rev Growth8.1%
Beta1.34
Dividend0.92%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.87neutral
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$670+49.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
1.2
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $426.21Resistance $465.67

Price Targets

$426
$482
A.Upside+7.7%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $447.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.7%. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $426.03. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the MCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $482.40 (+7.7% upside). Prior stop was $426.03. Stop-loss: $426.03.

What are the risks of investing in MCO?

Thin upside margin: 7.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is MCO overvalued or undervalued?

Moody's Corporation trades at a P/E of 32.2 (forward 24.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MCO?

30 analysts cover MCO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $536.

What does Moody's Corporation do?In a world shaped by increasingly interconnected risks, Moody's data, insights, and innovative technologies help...

In a world shaped by increasingly interconnected risks, Moody's data, insights, and innovative technologies help customers develop a holistic view of their world and unlock opportunities. Moody's offerings are distinguished by our vast proprietary and curated data and validated analytical models, which provide the trusted foundation that enable our customers to navigate an increasingly complex risk landscape.

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Home Stocks MCO

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