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MAMastercard IncorporatedSell6.0·$488.12+0.33%
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Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $488.12 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Mastercard is a global payments technology company operating a four-party network enabling transactions in 150+ currencies across 220+ countries and territories, processing $10.6 trillion in gross dollar volume in 2025. Net revenue of $32.8 billion in 2025 (up 16%) comes from... Read more

$488.12+21.9% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#11 of 29 Credit Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.76%
IncomeYield0.72%(5y avg 0.54%)Payout18.23%sustainable
Stop $466.87Target $595.21(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 4.4:1
Analyst target$646.97+32.5%36 analysts
$595.21our TP
$488.12price
$646.97mean
$735

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $488.12 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: conservative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202647d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Wide economic moat
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.2
P/E (Fwd)21.4
Mkt Cap$429.9B
EV/EBITDA20.6
Profit Mgn45.9%
ROE232.1%
Rev Growth15.8%
Beta0.74
Dividend0.72%
Rating analysts51

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.95neutral
IV37%normal
Max Pain$310-36.5% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-07Item 5.02LOW
    Sandra Arkell (Corporate Controller, principal accounting officer) to move to Chief Audit Executive role August 3, 2026. Chris Mullett appointed successor Corporate Controller and principal accounting officer effective August 3, 2026. Clean handoff with named successor.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 4.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 47d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Conservative
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $464.52Resistance $512.90

Price Targets

$467
$595
A.Upside+21.9%
A.R:R4.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (47d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $488.12 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Prior stop was $466.87. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $595.21 (+21.9% upside). Prior stop was $466.87. Stop-loss: $466.87.

What are the risks of investing in MA?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MA overvalued or undervalued?

Mastercard Incorporated trades at a P/E of 28.2 (forward 21.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MA?

51 analysts cover MA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $647.

What does Mastercard Incorporated do?Mastercard is a global payments technology company operating a four-party network enabling transactions in 150+...

Mastercard is a global payments technology company operating a four-party network enabling transactions in 150+ currencies across 220+ countries and territories, processing $10.6 trillion in gross dollar volume in 2025. Net revenue of $32.8 billion in 2025 (up 16%) comes from network switching fees, service fees, data analytics, and other value-added services to financial institutions, merchants, governments, and businesses.

Related stocks: V (Visa Inc.) · AXP (American Express Company) · COF (Capital One Financial Corporati) · NU (Nu Holdings Ltd.) · ICE (Intercontinental Exchange Inc.)
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