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Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $499.18 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Mastercard is a global payments technology company that switches payment transactions through its proprietary network, generating $32.8B in net revenue in 2025 across $10.6T in gross dollar volume and 175.5B switched transactions. It earns fees from financial institutions,... Read more

$499.18+20.3% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#10 of 28 Credit Services
Stop $475.62Target $600.48(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 4.1:1
Analyst target$652.69+30.8%36 analysts
$600.48our TP
$499.18price
$652.69mean
$735

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $499.18 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Analyst upside: 20%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.1
P/E (Fwd)22.2
Mkt Cap$444.8B
EV/EBITDA21.6
Profit Mgn45.9%
ROE232.1%
Rev Growth15.8%
Beta
Dividend0.69%
Rating analysts48

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.19bearish
IV37%normal
Max Pain$445-10.9% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-05Item 5.02LOW
    Mastercard's Compensation Committee approved base salary and annual incentive bonus adjustments for Named Executive Officers effective March 1, 2026. No departures or appointments disclosed.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $490.33Resistance $534.21

Price Targets

$476
$600
A.Upside+20.3%
A.R:R4.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $499.18 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $475.62. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $600.48 (+20.3% upside). Prior stop was $475.62. Stop-loss: $475.62.

What are the risks of investing in MA?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MA overvalued or undervalued?

Mastercard Incorporated trades at a P/E of 29.1 (forward 22.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MA?

48 analysts cover MA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $653.

What does Mastercard Incorporated do?Mastercard is a global payments technology company that switches payment transactions through its proprietary network,...

Mastercard is a global payments technology company that switches payment transactions through its proprietary network, generating $32.8B in net revenue in 2025 across $10.6T in gross dollar volume and 175.5B switched transactions. It earns fees from financial institutions, merchants, and other customers for payment processing, security, and data services.

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