Value
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.0 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.57
MA · Why this verdict
Why Mastercard (MA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.9 |
| FCF quality | 7.2 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 232%
- ▸Strong margins: 46%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
| EPS growth | 6.2 |
Momentum
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 5.2 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.4 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.48 (n=5)
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.1 |
| quality rank | 9.3 |
| growth rank | 5.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 5.6 |
| 52w position | 6.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.6 |
| days to cover | 9.0 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| put call | 3.8 |
| implied vol | 6.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 2.2 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $310
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 72.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:4.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:50d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
4.51
Upside
+22.6%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (8.6) with weak momentum (2.4)
SuitabilityCONSERVATIVE — Beta 0.74<0.8, Div 72.0%, Q=8.6
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:4.5>=1.5. Top dim: Quality at 8.6; weakest: Momentum at 2.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.6, Sentiment at 8.4, and Catalyst at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 2.4, Value at 4.5, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.51 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.