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COFCapital One Financial CorporatiSell5.6·$194.73+5.41%
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Capital One Financial Corporati (COF) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $194.73: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 1.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.33; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Capital One Financial is the largest credit card issuer in the U.S. by outstanding loan balance as of December 31, 2025, after acquiring Discover Financial Services on May 18, 2025 for $51.8 billion in total consideration. Three segments—Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and... Read more

$194.73+17.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#22 of 29 Credit Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.73%(5y avg 1.65%)Payout86.12%at-risk
Stop $182.72Target $229.20(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$254.67+30.8%21 analysts
$229.20our TP
$194.73price
$254.67mean
$310

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $194.73: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 1.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.33; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Capital One Financial Corporati

About Capital One Financial Corporati

Capital One Financial closed its acquisition of Discover Financial Services on May 18, 2025, absorbing $168.6 billion in acquired fair-value assets and $106.9 billion in assumed deposits, and became the largest issuer of credit cards in the U.S. by outstanding loan balance. Three segments—Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking—plus the acquired Global Payment Network (Discover, PULSE, Diners Club) constitute the company's operations. The Federal Reserve regulates the holding company as a bank holding company and financial holding company; the OCC and FDIC serve as primary bank regulators.

Capital One earns net interest income primarily from credit card lending and auto loans, supplemented by non-interest income including interchange and discount fees net of rewards expense plus service charges. The Credit Card segment covers domestic consumer and small business cards plus international card operations in the U.K. and Canada. Consumer Banking includes deposit gathering, auto lending, and Global Payment Network services. Commercial Banking serves companies with revenues typically between $20 million and $2 billion through lending, treasury management, and capital markets products. The Discover acquisition added personal loans and a closed-loop network through which the company earns per-transaction fees from acquirers, merchants, and issuers. Integration expenses are expected to continue; the company acknowledged that many costs are difficult to estimate and may exceed initial projections. In January 2026, Capital One agreed to acquire Brex Inc. for approximately $5.15 billion (roughly $2.58 billion in cash plus about 10.6 million shares), subject to regulatory clearance.

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Capital One's Federal Reserve stress capital buffer requirement stands at 4.5% through September 30, 2027, bringing the CET1 minimum to 9.0% and total capital to 12.5%. As a Category III institution—total consolidated assets of at least $250 billion but less than $700 billion—the company is subject to annual supervisory stress testing. Regulatory risks include potential changes to debit interchange routing under Federal Reserve Regulation II that could apply to the Discover Network, outstanding regulatory orders assumed from Discover as legal successor, and ongoing supervisory scrutiny of integration scale by the OCC, FDIC, and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

See also: Financial Services · Credit Services

From Capital One Financial Corporati's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 21, 202636d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-30.8% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -7.1%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)56.8
P/E (Fwd)7.6
Mkt Cap$115.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn8.9%
ROE3.3%
Rev Growth46.3%
Beta1.04
Dividend1.73%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C3.33bearish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$65-66.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.1
Gap
5.0
52w Position
5.1
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.6>=5.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 36d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $174.24Resistance $197.44

Price Targets

$183
$229
A.Upside+17.7%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-30.8% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -7.1%)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (36d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $194.73: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 1.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.33; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Prior stop was $182.72. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $229.20 (+17.7% upside). Prior stop was $182.72. Stop-loss: $182.72.

What are the risks of investing in COF?

Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-30.8% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -7.1%).

Is COF overvalued or undervalued?

Capital One Financial Corporati trades at a P/E of 56.8 (forward 7.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about COF?

28 analysts cover COF with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $255.

What does Capital One Financial Corporati do?Capital One Financial is the largest credit card issuer in the U.S. by outstanding loan balance as of December 31,...

Capital One Financial is the largest credit card issuer in the U.S. by outstanding loan balance as of December 31, 2025, after acquiring Discover Financial Services on May 18, 2025 for $51.8 billion in total consideration. Three segments—Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking—plus the acquired Global Payment Network (Discover, PULSE, Diners Club) serve consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients across the U.S., U.K., and Canada.

Related stocks: ALLY (Ally Financial Inc.) · V (Visa Inc.) · SYF (Synchrony Financial) · AXP (American Express Company) · MA (Mastercard Incorporated)
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