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LMTLockheed Martin CorporationSell4.6·$540.27-1.53%
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Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. At $540.27, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (DoW) (63.0%).

Lockheed Martin is a global aerospace and defense technology company operating in four segments — Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space — building military aircraft, missile and air-defense systems, helicopters, radars, satellites and... Read more

$540.27+4.1% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#43 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield3.20%
IncomeYield2.55%(5y avg 2.63%)Payout65.38%
Stop $517.85Target $562.64(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$625.16+15.7%19 analysts
$562.64our TP
$540.27price
$625.16mean
$511
$756

Sell if holding. At $540.27, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (DoW) (63.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 21, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (DoW) (63.0%)
Thin upside margin: 4.1%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.2
P/E (Fwd)16.8
Mkt Cap$124.6B
EV/EBITDA17.9
Profit Mgn6.4%
ROE67.6%
Rev Growth0.3%
Beta0.11
Dividend2.55%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00bearish
IV41%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. Government72%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derived 72% of our total consolidated sales from the U.S. Government in 2025, including 63% from the Department of War (DoW)'
  • HIGHCustomerDepartment of War (DoW)63%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derived 72% of our total consolidated sales from the U.S. Government in 2025, including 63% from the Department of War (DoW)'
  • MEDIUMProductF-35 program27%
    10-K Item 1: 'The F-35 program is our largest program, generating 27% of our total consolidated sales'
  • MEDIUMSuppliersingle or sole sourced components
    10-K Item 1A: 'a significant number of the components or supplies used are currently single or sole sourced'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.6

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.8
Support Resistance
2.6
52w Position
5.7

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
7.4
Value Rank
8.4
Attractive P/E vs peersSuperior ROE vs peers
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $509.43Resistance $550.99

Price Targets

$518
$563
A.Upside+4.1%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LMT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $540.27, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (DoW) (63.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $517.85. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

What is the LMT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $562.64 (+4.1% upside). Prior stop was $517.85. Stop-loss: $517.85.

What are the risks of investing in LMT?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (DoW) (63.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.1%.

Is LMT overvalued or undervalued?

Lockheed Martin Corporation trades at a P/E of 26.2 (forward 16.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What does Lockheed Martin Corporation do?Lockheed Martin is a global aerospace and defense technology company operating in four segments — Aeronautics, Missiles...

Lockheed Martin is a global aerospace and defense technology company operating in four segments — Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space — building military aircraft, missile and air-defense systems, helicopters, radars, satellites and strategic systems. It derived 72% of 2025 consolidated sales from the U.S. Government, including 63% from the Department of War, with its largest program, the F-35, generating 27% of total sales. Primary competitors include Boeing, General Dynamics, L3Harris, Northrop Grumman and RTX Corporation.

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