A deep valuation discount — forward price-to-earnings of 7.9x, PEG ratio of 0.12, and 35.8% upside to the analyst consensus target — combined with free cash flow running at 153% of net income frame a recovery case, but two misses in the last four quarters and a confirmed price downtrend signal that fundamental pressure has not yet peaked.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Discount→Stable
- Superior Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Earnings Delivery Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026
LKQ Corporation (LKQ) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $17.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
LKQ Corporation ("LKQ," the "Company" or "we") is a global distributor of vehicle products, including replacement parts, components and systems used in the repair and maintenance of vehicles, and specialty aftermarket products and accessories to improve the performance,... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $17.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and news legal. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — LKQ Corporation
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Oct 23, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: | Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 23, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of the Company announced that Justin L.
Latest news
- NEWS LKQ (LKQ) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS LKQ (LKQ) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS LKQ (LKQ) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS What To Expect From LKQ’s (LKQ) Q1 Earnings - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS LKQ Maintains Rating by Barclays -- Price Target Lowered to $30 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:33Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-10-23Item 5.02MEDIUM| Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 23, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of the Company announced that Justin L.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $17.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $16.34. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $21.63 (+25.8% upside). Prior stop was $16.34. Stop-loss: $16.34.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
LKQ Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.6 (forward 6.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover LKQ with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $25.
What does LKQ Corporation do?LKQ Corporation ("LKQ," the "Company" or "we") is a global distributor of vehicle products, including replacement...
LKQ Corporation ("LKQ," the "Company" or "we") is a global distributor of vehicle products, including replacement parts, components and systems used in the repair and maintenance of vehicles, and specialty aftermarket products and accessories to improve the performance, functionality and appearance of vehicles.