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Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Communication Equipment

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $738.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: small number of suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Ubiquiti develops and sells networking products for enterprises, service providers, and consumers globally through 100+ distributors in over 75 countries, with revenues of $2.6B in fiscal 2025. Products include WLAN, video surveillance, routing, and switching under the UniFi and... Read more

$738.61+45.9% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#5 of 21 Communication Equipment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.07%
IncomeYield0.38%(5y avg 0.95%)Payout19.29%sustainable
Stop $706.34Target $1077.99(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$753.50+2.0%2 analysts
$1077.99our TP
$738.61price
$753.50mean
$527
$1078

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $738.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: small number of suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 22, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 102d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: small number of suppliers
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)54.1
P/E (Fwd)44.5
Mkt Cap$51.0B
EV/EBITDA45.0
Profit Mgn30.4%
ROE115.0%
Rev Growth18.7%
Beta1.47
Dividend0.38%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersmall number of suppliers
    10-K Item 1: 'The majority of our product revenues are dependent upon the sale of products that incorporate components from a small number of suppliers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.3
Forward Pe
2.6
Peg Ratio
5.0
Forward P/E: 44.5xPEG: 1.51Expensive valuation
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 102d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
22 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $728.19Resistance $1099.99

Price Targets

$706
$1078
A.Upside+45.9%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-21 (102d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $738.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: small number of suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 22, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $1077.99 (+45.9%), stop $706.34 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the UI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1077.99 (+45.9% upside). Target $1077.99 (+45.9%), stop $706.34 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $706.34.

What are the risks of investing in UI?

Concentration risk — Supplier: small number of suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5.

Is UI overvalued or undervalued?

Ubiquiti Inc. trades at a P/E of 54.1 (forward 44.5). TrendMatrix value score: 2.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about UI?

11 analysts cover UI with a consensus score of 2.2/5. Average price target: $754.

What does Ubiquiti Inc. do?Ubiquiti develops and sells networking products for enterprises, service providers, and consumers globally through 100+...

Ubiquiti develops and sells networking products for enterprises, service providers, and consumers globally through 100+ distributors in over 75 countries, with revenues of $2.6B in fiscal 2025. Products include WLAN, video surveillance, routing, and switching under the UniFi and airMAX platforms; no single customer represented 10%+ of revenue. Contract manufacturing is primarily in Vietnam and China, with key components sourced from a limited number of suppliers.

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