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LENLennar CorporationSell4.4·$79.56+2.13%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Lennar is trading in a confirmed downtrend with revenue declining roughly 5% year over year, three earnings misses in the past four quarters, and a risk/reward ratio that does not justify adding exposure — the stock has already exceeded its near-term price target, leaving little room for reward relative to the downside.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Miss StreakDeteriorating
  • Quality Below Investment GradeStable
  • Price Target ExhaustionDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Lennar Corporation (LEN) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellValueQualityShortModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Earnings in 3 days (2026-09-16). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $79.56: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.31; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States by deliveries, revenues and net earnings, an originator of residential and commercial mortgage loans, a provider of title insurance and closing services and a developer of multifamily rental properties. In addition, we... Read more

$79.56-5.8% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#15 of 19 Residential Construction
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield5.62%
IncomeYield2.51%(5y avg 1.50%)Payout31.35%sustainable
Stop $75.10Target $87.86(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$86.23+8.4%13 analysts
$87.86our TP
$79.56price
$86.23mean
$67
$120

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $79.56: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.31; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-14

Recent Developments — Lennar Corporation

Generated 2026-09-14T05:21:58Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Sep 16, 20263d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Earnings detected in news
Risks
Target reached (-5.8% upside)
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.5
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$19.2B
EV/EBITDA10.4
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE7.4%
Rev Growth-5.2%
Beta1.40
Dividend2.51%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.31bearish
IV59%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -5.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.2
Declining revenue: -5%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
5.3
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
2.1
Roe
2.5
Net Margin
2.5
Roa
2.6
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
4.6
Current Ratio
5.0
Fcf Quality
5.1
Earnings quality warning: 67% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.60SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $76.63Resistance $89.65

Price Targets

$75
$88
A.Upside-5.8%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-16 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LEN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $79.56: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.31; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $75.10. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LEN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $87.86 (-5.8% upside). Prior stop was $75.10. Stop-loss: $75.10.

What are the risks of investing in LEN?

Target reached (-5.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Is LEN overvalued or undervalued?

Lennar Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.5 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LEN?

26 analysts cover LEN with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $86.

What does Lennar Corporation do?We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States by deliveries, revenues and net earnings, an originator of...

We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States by deliveries, revenues and net earnings, an originator of residential and commercial mortgage loans, a provider of title insurance and closing services and a developer of multifamily rental properties. In addition, we are a sponsor and manager of funds and joint ventures engaged in development and ownership of multifamily rental properties and a sponsor and manager of a fund engaged in ownership of single-family rental properties.

Related stocks: SKY (Champion Homes, Inc.) · IBP (Installed Building Products, In) · CVCO (Cavco Industries, Inc.) · GRBK (Green Brick Partners, Inc.) · MHO (M/I Homes, Inc.)
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