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KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.Sell6.4·$82.01+3.82%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The business combines high financial quality — Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, 53% return on equity, and 45% year-over-year growth — with an attractively priced forward multiple of 12.3x; however, with the current price just 1.5% below the analyst consensus target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.21-to-1, the setup favors maintaining an existing position rather than adding new exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Target Reached Thin AsymmetryImproving
  • Attractive Valuation Low PegImproving
  • Strong Piotroski QualityImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Sell if holding. At $82.01, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%).

Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net revenues), international wholesale (21%), and direct-to-consumer (15%) channels in over 90 countries. Walmart accounted for 30% of net revenues in 2025, and the... Read more

$82.01+3.6% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#2 of 14 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield10.21%
IncomeYield2.58%(5y avg 3.44%)Payout42.71%sustainable
Stop $76.27Target $85.00(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$97.70+19.1%10 analysts
$85.00our TP
$82.01price
$97.70mean
$50
$136

Sell if holding. At $82.01, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 68d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202668d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%)
Thin upside margin: 3.6%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.6
P/E (Fwd)12.0
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA9.2
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE49.5%
Rev Growth18.6%
Beta0.91
Dividend2.58%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.74neutral
IV46%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerWalmart30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top customer, Walmart, accounted for 30% of our total net revenues in 2025, 2024 and 2023'
  • HIGHCustomerten largest customers53%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to our ten largest customers accounted for 53% of total net revenues in 2025'
  • HIGHGeographicAsia manufacturing77%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77% of our units were purchased from independent manufacturers primarily located in Asia'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 68d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $74.60Resistance $88.25

Price Targets

$76
$85
A.Upside+3.6%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (68d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KTB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $82.01, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $76.27. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KTB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $85.00 (+3.6% upside). Prior stop was $76.27. Stop-loss: $76.27.

What are the risks of investing in KTB?

Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.6%.

Is KTB overvalued or undervalued?

Kontoor Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.6 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KTB?

14 analysts cover KTB with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $98.

What does Kontoor Brands, Inc. do?Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net...

Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net revenues), international wholesale (21%), and direct-to-consumer (15%) channels in over 90 countries. Walmart accounted for 30% of net revenues in 2025, and the top ten customers represented 53% combined. The May 2025 acquisition of Helly Hansen for ~$957.5 million added a global outdoor and workwear brand.

Related stocks: FIGS (FIGS, Inc.) · GIL (Gildan Activewear, Inc.) · LEVI (Levi Strauss & Co) · COLM (Columbia Sportswear Company) · RL (Ralph Lauren Corporation)
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