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COLMColumbia Sportswear CompanyBuy Wait5.6·$60.90
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Back-to-back outsized earnings beats—85% and 45% above estimates in the two most recent quarters—demonstrate sharply improved execution, but the stock is already priced near its resistance target with only 1.2% headroom, an unfavorable 0.21-to-1 risk/reward, and a dual supplier concentration risk spanning 80% of footwear production that keeps the setup from being compelling at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Outsized Recent Earnings Execution↓Deteriorating
  • Supplier Concentration Dual Risk↓Deteriorating
  • Upside Capped Near Resistance→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Earnings today — results expected after close (2026-10-29). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $56.37. At $60.90 the A.R:R is 0.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $56.37 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: top-5 footwear manufacturers (80.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: limited-source proprietary materials.

Columbia Sportswear designs, develops, and distributes outdoor, active, and lifestyle apparel, footwear, accessories, and equipment under four brands — Columbia, SOREL, Mountain Hardwear, and prAna — sold in 115 countries across U.S., LAAP, EMEA, and Canada segments. Revenue... Read more

$60.90+0.3% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#7 of 13 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield8.18%
IncomeYield1.97%(5y avg 1.56%)Payout31.33%sustainable
Entry $56.37(support + ATR (held))Stop $53.84Target $61.07(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst consensus$70.20+15.3%5 analysts
$61.07our TP
$60.90price
$70.20mean
$47
$92

Wait for pullback to $56.37. At $60.90 the A.R:R is 0.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $56.37 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: top-5 footwear manufacturers (80.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: limited-source proprietary materials. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 2026Earnings today — results expected after close· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: top-5 footwear manufacturers (80.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: limited-source proprietary materials
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.9
P/E (Fwd)14.6
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA8.6
Profit Mgn6.0%
ROE12.7%
Rev Growth1.5%
Beta0.93
Dividend1.97%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C333.83bearish
IV50%elevated
Max Pain$50-17.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierVietnam apparel manufacturers35%
    10-K Item 1: 'finished goods manufacturers in Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and India produced approximately 35%, 30%, 10% and 10%, respectively, of these products'
  • MEDIUMSupplierBangladesh apparel manufacturers30%
    10-K Item 1: 'finished goods manufacturers in Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and India produced approximately 35%, 30%, 10% and 10%, respectively, of these products'
  • LOWSupplierIndonesia apparel manufacturers10%
    10-K Item 1: 'finished goods manufacturers in Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and India produced approximately 35%, 30%, 10% and 10%, respectively, of these products'
  • LOWSupplierIndia apparel manufacturers10%
    10-K Item 1: 'finished goods manufacturers in Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and India produced approximately 35%, 30%, 10% and 10%, respectively, of these products'
  • HIGHSuppliertop-5 footwear manufacturers80%
    10-K Item 1: 'Five of the largest contract finished goods manufacturers account for approximately 80% of our footwear production, with the largest manufacturer accounting for approximately 25%'
  • MEDIUMSupplierlargest footwear manufacturer25%
    10-K Item 1: 'Five of the largest contract finished goods manufacturers account for approximately 80% of our footwear production, with the largest manufacturer accounting for approximately 25%'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-2 Canada wholesale customers30%
    10-K Item 1: 'our two largest Canada wholesale customers accounted for approximately 30% of Canada net sales; approximately 17% and 13%, respectively'
  • MEDIUMSupplierChina footwear raw material sourcing
    10-K Item 1A: 'our contract manufacturers sourced roughly 27% of our footwear raw materials and roughly 21% of our apparel raw materials for the U.S. market from China'
  • HIGHSupplierlimited-source proprietary materials
    10-K Item 1A: 'some of our materials are highly technical and/or proprietary and may be available from only one source or a very limited number of sources'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-20Item 1.01LOW
    Columbia Sportswear entered into a $500 million unsecured revolving credit facility with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as administrative agent, maturing March 19, 2031. SOFR-based pricing at +1.00-1.50% depending on funded debt ratio. Replaces prior credit facility.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-20Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Termination of prior revolving credit agreement in connection with entry into new $500M JPMorgan Chase credit facility signed March 19, 2026. Replaced by new facility; no reason cited beyond refinancing.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-20Item 2.03LOW
    Creation of direct financial obligation: $500M unsecured revolving credit facility with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., SOFR + 1.00-1.50% based on funded debt ratio, maturing March 19, 2031. Financial covenant: funded debt ratio ≤3.75x.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.9
Earnings Growth
3.8
GatesA.R:R 0.0 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7d8K FLAG 1.02Momentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $55.50Resistance $62.25

Price Targets

$54
$56
$61
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.3% upside)
! Earnings today - binary event risk
! asymmetry at 0.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (Earnings today — results expected after close)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COLM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $56.37. At $60.90 the A.R:R is 0.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $56.37 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: top-5 footwear manufacturers (80.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: limited-source proprietary materials. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Target $61.07 (+0.3%), stop $53.84 (−13.1%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COLM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $61.07 (+0.3% upside). Target $61.07 (+0.3%), stop $53.84 (−13.1%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $53.84.

What are the risks of investing in COLM?

Concentration risk — Supplier: top-5 footwear manufacturers (80.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: limited-source proprietary materials; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is COLM overvalued or undervalued?

Columbia Sportswear Company trades at a P/E of 15.9 (forward 14.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about COLM?

15 analysts cover COLM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $70.

What does Columbia Sportswear Company do?Columbia Sportswear designs, develops, and distributes outdoor, active, and lifestyle apparel, footwear, accessories,...

Columbia Sportswear designs, develops, and distributes outdoor, active, and lifestyle apparel, footwear, accessories, and equipment under four brands — Columbia, SOREL, Mountain Hardwear, and prAna — sold in 115 countries across U.S., LAAP, EMEA, and Canada segments. Revenue flows through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels including over 170 U.S. retail stores, approximately 1,950 U.S. wholesale customers, and brand e-commerce sites.

Related stocks: KTB (Kontoor Brands, Inc.) · GIL (Gildan Activewear, Inc.) · FIGS (FIGS, Inc.) · RL (Ralph Lauren Corporation) · GIII (G-III Apparel Group, LTD.)
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