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COLMColumbia Sportswear CompanySell5.6·$66.56+3.25%
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Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Sell if holding. At $66.56, A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear production (80.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam and Bangladesh apparel production (65.0%).

Columbia Sportswear designs, develops, markets, and distributes outdoor apparel, footwear, accessories, and equipment under four brands (Columbia, SOREL, Mountain Hardwear, prAna) in 115 countries, with ~9,620 employees. Revenue is primarily from wholesale to 1,950+ US customers... Read more

$66.56+0.6% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#7 of 13 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.78%
IncomeYield1.86%(5y avg 1.53%)Payout38.34%sustainable
Stop $62.44Target $66.93(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$70.67+6.2%6 analysts
$66.93our TP
$66.56price
$70.67mean
$47
$92

Sell if holding. At $66.56, A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear production (80.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam and Bangladesh apparel production (65.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear production (80.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam and Bangladesh apparel production (65.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.6
P/E (Fwd)15.3
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA11.2
Profit Mgn5.0%
ROE10.3%
Rev Growth0.1%
Beta0.93
Dividend1.86%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.18bullish
IV73%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierVietnam footwear production80%
    10-K Item 1: 'finished goods manufacturers in Vietnam and China produced approximately 80% and 10%, respectively, of these products.'
  • HIGHSupplierVietnam and Bangladesh apparel production65%
    10-K Item 1: 'finished goods manufacturers in Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and India produced approximately 35%, 30%, 10% and 10%, respectively, of these products.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerCanada top-2 wholesale customers30%
    10-K Item 1: 'our two largest Canada wholesale customers accounted for approximately 30% of Canada net sales; approximately 17% and 13%, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-20Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Columbia Sportswear terminated prior revolving credit facility and entered new $500M unsecured revolving credit facility (JPMorgan as admin agent) maturing March 19, 2031, with SOFR + 1.00-1.50% margin and max funded debt ratio 3.75x.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVE8K FLAG 1.02Momentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $56.84Resistance $68.30

Price Targets

$62
$67
A.Upside+0.6%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COLM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $66.56, A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear production (80.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam and Bangladesh apparel production (65.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $62.44. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COLM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $66.93 (+0.6% upside). Prior stop was $62.44. Stop-loss: $62.44.

What are the risks of investing in COLM?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear production (80.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam and Bangladesh apparel production (65.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is COLM overvalued or undervalued?

Columbia Sportswear Company trades at a P/E of 20.6 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about COLM?

14 analysts cover COLM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $71.

What does Columbia Sportswear Company do?Columbia Sportswear designs, develops, markets, and distributes outdoor apparel, footwear, accessories, and equipment...

Columbia Sportswear designs, develops, markets, and distributes outdoor apparel, footwear, accessories, and equipment under four brands (Columbia, SOREL, Mountain Hardwear, prAna) in 115 countries, with ~9,620 employees. Revenue is primarily from wholesale to 1,950+ US customers and DTC channels; footwear is manufactured ~80% in Vietnam and apparel ~35%/30% in Vietnam/Bangladesh from contract manufacturers.

Related stocks: KTB (Kontoor Brands, Inc.) · LEVI (Levi Strauss & Co) · GIL (Gildan Activewear, Inc.) · FIGS (FIGS, Inc.) · RL (Ralph Lauren Corporation)
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