Kohl's has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of 76% and exceptional free cash flow conversion of 296%, but business quality sits below the minimum investment threshold, revenue is declining, short interest at 25% of float reflects a deeply skeptical market, and the risk/reward is unfavorable with only 3.3% upside remaining to the take-profit level.
Thesis pillars
- Four Quarter Beat Streak→Stable
- Declining Revenue Below Quality Floor↓Deteriorating
- High Short Interest Market Skepticism↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 19, 2026
Kohl's Corporation (KSS) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Department Stores
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.34: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 34%; Below-average business quality.
Kohl's Corporation (the "Company," "Kohl's," "we," "our," or "us") was organized in 1988 and is a Wisconsin corporation. As of January 31, 2026, we operated 1,153 Kohl's stores and a website (www.Kohls.com). Our Kohl's stores and website sell moderately-priced proprietary and... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.34: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 34%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and news legal. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Kohl's Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Kohl's Earnings: What To Look For From KSS - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Ross Stores, Camping World, CarMax, Kohl's, and Arhaus Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Ross Stores, Camping World, CarMax, Kohl's, and Arhaus Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Kohl's Keeps Quarterly Dividend at $0.125 a Share, Payable June 24 to Holders of Record as of June 10 - marketscreener.c — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS Kohl's Set to Release Q1 Earnings: Key Insights for Investors - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-08-31Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.SEC filing →
- 2026-08-25Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.SEC filing →
- 2026-07-29Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On July 28, 2026, John E.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -0.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.34: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 34%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $21.71. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $16.71 reached (−28.4% from $23.34); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $21.71. Stop-loss: $21.71.
Target reached (-28.4% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.1), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.77% of cap).
Kohl's Corporation trades at a P/E of 10.0 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover KSS with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $19.
What does Kohl's Corporation do?Kohl's Corporation (the "Company," "Kohl's," "we," "our," or "us") was organized in 1988 and is a Wisconsin...
Kohl's Corporation (the "Company," "Kohl's," "we," "our," or "us") was organized in 1988 and is a Wisconsin corporation. As of January 31, 2026, we operated 1,153 Kohl's stores and a website (www.Kohls.com). Our Kohl's stores and website sell moderately-priced proprietary and national brand apparel, footwear, accessories, beauty, and home products. Our Kohl's stores generally carry a consistent merchandise assortment with some differences attributable to local preferences and store size.