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BWMXBetterware de Mexico, S.A.P.I. Buy Wait7.3·$16.64
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

BWMX screens cheap with an excellent return on equity and bullish insider buying, though its elevated leverage remains the key balance-sheet risk to watch.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Beat Cheap Valuation↑Improving
  • Excellent Roe Quality↑Improving
  • Modest Insider Buying↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Betterware de Mexico, S.A.P.I. (BWMX) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Wait for pullback to $16.08. BUY gates pass at $16.64, but sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5 and leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $16.08 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Betterware de México, S.A.P.I. de C.V. operates as a direct-to-consumer selling company in the United States and Mexico. It operates through Home Organization Products; and Beauty and Personal Care Products segments. The Home Organization Products segment provides a portfolio of... Read more

$16.64+48.0% A.UpsideScore 7.3/10#1 of 23 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield313.17%
IncomeYield7.58%(5y avg 8.45%)Payout63.13%
Entry $16.08(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $15.05Target $24.63(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 6.7:1
Analyst consensus$28.98+74.1%3 analysts
$24.63our TP
$16.64price
$28.98mean
$31

Wait for pullback to $16.08. BUY gates pass at $16.64, but sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5 and leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $16.08 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Deep value: 54% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. Score 7.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 119d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Feb 25, 2027119d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.7 in RISK_OFF)
Positive news sentiment (+0.70)
Strong overall score: 7.3/10
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.2
P/E (Fwd)6.4
Mkt Cap$620M
EV/EBITDA2.6
Profit Mgn8.2%
ROE71.7%
Rev Growth43.1%
Beta0.99
Dividend7.58%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.91neutral
IV71%elevated
Max Pain$13-24.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 7.6%
GatesMomentum 6.4>=5.5A.R:R 6.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 119d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $15.52Resistance $17.46

Price Targets

$15
$16
$25
A.Upside+48.0%
A.R:R6.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %2.2%
Max %4.3%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! RISK-OFF: Consumer Cyclical sector blocked for BUY_NOW (quality 7.74 < 8.5)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-25 (119d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BWMX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $16.08. BUY gates pass at $16.64, but sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5 and leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $16.08 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Deep value: 54% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. Target $24.63 (+48.0%), stop $15.05 (−10.6%), A.R:R 6.7:1. Score 7.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BWMX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.63 (+48.0% upside). Target $24.63 (+48.0%), stop $15.05 (−10.6%), A.R:R 6.7:1. Stop-loss: $15.05.

What are the risks of investing in BWMX?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is BWMX overvalued or undervalued?

Betterware de Mexico, S.A.P.I. trades at a P/E of 8.2 (forward 6.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about BWMX?

8 analysts cover BWMX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Betterware de Mexico, S.A.P.I. do?Betterware de México, S.A.P.I. de C.V. operates as a direct-to-consumer selling company in the United States and...

Betterware de México, S.A.P.I. de C.V. operates as a direct-to-consumer selling company in the United States and Mexico. It operates through Home Organization Products; and Beauty and Personal Care Products segments. The Home Organization Products segment provides a portfolio of products comprising kitchen and food preservation; home solutions; bedroom; bathroom; laundry and cleaning; wellness; and technology and mobility. The Beauty and Personal Care Products segment offers fragrances, color, skin care products, and toiletries. It sells its products through catalogues, as well as distributes through a network of distributors, associates, leaders, and consultants to the end customers. Betterware de México, S.A.P.I. de C.V. is headquartered in El Arenal, Mexico. The company operates as a subsidiary of Campalier S.A. de C.V.

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