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BWMXBetterware de Mexico, S.A.P.I. Sell6.6·$16.05+0.82%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

BWMX screens cheap with an excellent return on equity and bullish insider buying, though its elevated leverage remains the key balance-sheet risk to watch.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Beat Cheap ValuationStable
  • Excellent Roe QualityStable
  • Modest Insider BuyingStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Betterware de Mexico, S.A.P.I. (BWMX) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Betterware de México, S.A.P.I. de C.V. operates as a direct-to-consumer selling company in the United States and Mexico. It operates through Home Organization Products; and Beauty and Personal Care Products segments. The Home Organization Products segment provides a portfolio of... Read more

$16.05+57.9% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#3 of 25 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-275.24%
IncomeYield7.97%(5y avg 10.00%)Payout48.70%sustainable
Stop $15.01Target $25.34(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 9.0:1
Analyst target$29.81+85.7%3 analysts
$25.34our TP
$16.05price
$29.81mean
$32

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-22
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 22, 202661d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Margin of safety: 59%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.1
P/E (Fwd)5.6
Mkt Cap$598M
EV/EBITDA2.9
Profit Mgn8.5%
ROE73.0%
Rev Growth16.8%
Beta1.05
Dividend7.97%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.08bullish
IV97%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
1.1
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
3.7
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
3.4
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R 9.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $15.14Resistance $17.51

Price Targets

$15
$25
A.Upside+57.9%
A.R:R9.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-22 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BWMX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.01. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BWMX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.34 (+57.9% upside). Prior stop was $15.01. Stop-loss: $15.01.

What are the risks of investing in BWMX?

Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is BWMX overvalued or undervalued?

Betterware de Mexico, S.A.P.I. trades at a P/E of 6.1 (forward 5.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BWMX?

8 analysts cover BWMX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Betterware de Mexico, S.A.P.I. do?Betterware de México, S.A.P.I. de C.V. operates as a direct-to-consumer selling company in the United States and...

Betterware de México, S.A.P.I. de C.V. operates as a direct-to-consumer selling company in the United States and Mexico. It operates through Home Organization Products; and Beauty and Personal Care Products segments. The Home Organization Products segment provides a portfolio of products comprising kitchen and food preservation; home solutions; bedroom; bathroom; laundry and cleaning; wellness; and technology and mobility. The Beauty and Personal Care Products segment offers fragrances, color, skin care products, and toiletries. It sells its products through catalogues, as well as distributes through a network of distributors, associates, leaders, and consultants to the end customers. Betterware de México, S.A.P.I. de C.V. is headquartered in El Arenal, Mexico. The company operates as a subsidiary of Campalier S.A. de C.V.

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