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KSSKohl's CorporationSell4.5·$16.21+4.87%
KSS · Why this verdict

Why Kohl's (KSS) is rated SELL

Updated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

VerdictSELL
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL

Per-dimension breakdown

Value

7.3/10data confidence 100%
ComponentSub-score
P/E9.7
P/S10.0
EV/EBITDA7.9
Fwd P/E9.2
PEG4.7
Analyst target4.0
  • Forward P/E: 10.4x
  • PEG: 1.83
  • Attractively valued

Quality

3.8/10data confidence 100%
ComponentSub-score
ROE2.3
ROA1.5
Gross margin4.1
Op margin0.6
Net margin0.9
Current ratio5.4
FCF quality10.0
Moat3.9
Piotroski F5.6
  • Excellent cash conversion: 296% FCF/NI
  • No competitive moat

Growth

2.0/10data confidence 33%
ComponentSub-score
Rev growth2.0
  • Declining revenue: -2%

Momentum

5.4/10data confidence 100%
ComponentSub-score
RSI2.7
MACD10.0
OBV4.1
MA position7.2
Volume3.0
  • Overbought bear rally (RSI 74)
  • Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Sentiment

6.1/10data confidence 100%
ComponentSub-score
LLM sentiment7.1
Analyst rating5.0
Price target6.5
  • LLM news sentiment: +0.43 (n=2)

Insider

5.0/10data confidence 50%
ComponentSub-score
materiality5.0
holder change5.1
  • Negligible insider selling — $65,042 (0.004% of mkt cap)

Peer rank

3.3/10data confidence 80%
ComponentSub-score
value rank7.1
quality rank1.3
growth rank0.0

Technical

1.6/10data confidence 100%
ComponentSub-score
bollinger1.1
support resistance0.5
52w position3.1

Risk (lower is worse)

2.8/10data confidence 100%
ComponentSub-score
short interest0.0
days to cover4.7
volatility0.0
put call5.7
implied vol0.0
max pain risk3.0
beta5.1
debt equity3.8
  • High short interest: 27%
  • High IV: 85%
  • Above max pain $7

Catalyst

6.9/10data confidence 100%
ComponentSub-score
erm5.0
earnings history10.0
earnings timing5.0
surprise avg10.0
dividend safety5.2
news activity6.0
  • Perfect beat streak: 4Q
  • Dividend: 323.0%

How the verdict was assembled

Engine trigger

Quality below minimum threshold.

Engine technical detail
verdict_path: L1:HARD_BLOCK
Passed (7)
  • MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
  • INSIDER:OK
  • 8K:CLEAN
  • NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.40
  • EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:79d clear
  • SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
  • MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
  • ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
  • MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.27
Upside
-4.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID

SetupRECOVERY Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74

EdgeNO_EDGE No clear edge identified

SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE Beta 1.48>1.3, MCap $1.8B<$5B

Investment implication

The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.3 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE.

The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.3, Catalyst at 6.9, and Sentiment at 6.1; the weakest are Technical at 1.6, Growth at 2.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.

Engine reasoning is mechanically derived from pipeline gate outputs. See decision view.

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