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KBHKB HomeSell3.9·$54.00-0.57%
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KB Home (KBH) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $54.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.09; Below-average business quality.

KB Home is one of the largest U.S. homebuilders, operating in 9 states and 49 markets primarily serving first-time and first move-up buyers through a Built to Order approach. Homebuilding accounts for 99.6% of 2025 revenues, with operations concentrated in California, Florida,... Read more

$54.00-0.4% A.UpsideScore 3.9/10#14 of 16 Residential Construction
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield12.64%
IncomeYield1.85%(5y avg 1.54%)Payout19.31%sustainable
Stop $50.84Target $53.81(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$55.15+2.1%13 analysts
$53.81our TP
$54.00price
$55.15mean
$43
$77

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $54.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.09; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14

Recent Developments — KB Home

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jun 23, 202610d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Nevada and Texas
Concentration risk — Geographic: California
Target reached (-11.1% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.4
P/E (Fwd)12.1
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn6.0%
ROE8.9%
Rev Growth-22.6%
Beta1.38
Dividend1.85%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.09bearish
IV53%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia, Florida, Nevada and Texas
    10-K Item 1A: 'our business is presently concentrated in California, Florida, Nevada and Texas'
  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia
    10-K Item 1A: 'We generate the highest proportion of our revenues from and make significant inventory investments in our California operations.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-01Item 5.02HIGH
    CFO Robert R. Dillard resigned effective May 8, 2026. No successor named. Departure not related to any disagreement with KB Home or its financial or accounting policies.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-26Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Amendment discloses Robert McGibney's compensation as new President and CEO (effective March 1, 2026); Jeffrey Mezger transitions to Executive Chairman. Clean CEO succession with named successor.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -22.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -23%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.8
Bollinger
1.4
52w Position
5.9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.3
Quality Rank
2.5
Value Rank
8.8
Attractive P/E vs peers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
1.2
Roa
2.9
Roe
3.0
Net Margin
3.0
Moat
3.9
Current Ratio
5.2
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
9.0
Excellent cash conversion: 121% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 4.5<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 10d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $44.02Resistance $54.91

Price Targets

$51
$54
A.Upside-0.4%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! momentum at 4.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-23 (10d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KBH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $54.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.09; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Prior stop was $50.84. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

What is the KBH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $53.81 (-0.4% upside). Prior stop was $50.84. Stop-loss: $50.84.

What are the risks of investing in KBH?

Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Nevada and Texas; Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Target reached (-11.1% upside).

Is KBH overvalued or undervalued?

KB Home trades at a P/E of 10.4 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KBH?

25 analysts cover KBH with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $55.

What does KB Home do?KB Home is one of the largest U.S. homebuilders, operating in 9 states and 49 markets primarily serving first-time and...

KB Home is one of the largest U.S. homebuilders, operating in 9 states and 49 markets primarily serving first-time and first move-up buyers through a Built to Order approach. Homebuilding accounts for 99.6% of 2025 revenues, with operations concentrated in California, Florida, Nevada, and Texas. The company owned or controlled 64,612 lots at November 30, 2025.

Related stocks: IBP (Installed Building Products, In) · MHO (M/I Homes, Inc.) · CVCO (Cavco Industries, Inc.) · GRBK (Green Brick Partners, Inc.) · TOL (Toll Brothers, Inc.)
Home Stocks KBH

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