Value
7.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.7x
- ▸Attractively valued
KBH · Why this verdict
Why KB Home (KBH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.2 |
| Net margin | 3.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| FCF quality | 9.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 121% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -23%
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 83)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.8 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 5.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.7 |
| days to cover | 3.4 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 18%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 7.84
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 192.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.52
Upside
-7.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 16d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.38>1.3, MCap $3.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.2 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.2, Catalyst at 5.6, and Sentiment at 5.3; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Technical at 2.4, and Peer rank at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.52 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.