A high-quality healthcare franchise with strong margins, a wide economic moat, and strong price momentum has already surpassed its near-term resistance target, leaving the risk/reward unfavorable for new exposure; the setup favors holding an existing position while monitoring the dividend sustainability concern and the most recent earnings miss.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Margins Moat↓Deteriorating
- Strong Technical Breakout Setup↓Deteriorating
- Dividend Yield Safety Concern→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $272.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.3% away).
Johnson & Johnson develops and markets pharmaceutical and medical technology products globally across Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments, employing approximately 138,200 full-time equivalents. Revenue comes from prescription medicines, devices, and contact lenses sold... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $272.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.3% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 49, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Johnson & Johnson
About Johnson & Johnson
Johnson & Johnson generated fiscal 2025 revenue across two segments: Innovative Medicine, covering oncology, immunology, neuroscience, pulmonary hypertension, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular therapies, and MedTech, covering cardiovascular devices, orthopaedics, surgery, and vision care. DARZALEX accounted for approximately 15.0% of fiscal 2025 revenues, STELARA for about 6.5%, and TREMFYA for 5.5%. About 43% of fiscal 2025 sales occurred outside the U.S., with roughly 23% in Europe and 15% in Asia-Pacific and Africa, across operations employing 138,200 full-time equivalents worldwide.
The Innovative Medicine segment sells prescription medicines — including CAR-T therapies, bispecific antibodies, and anticoagulants — through wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and direct to healthcare professionals. The MedTech segment distributes cardiovascular devices, orthopaedic implants, surgical instruments, and ACUVUE contact lenses to hospitals and eye care professionals worldwide. Revenue is affected by government and private payer reimbursement decisions; the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 subjected XARELTO, STELARA, and IMBRUVICA to government-established Medicare pricing beginning in 2026. ERLEADA was added to the 2028 Selected Drug list in January 2026. Janssen Pharmaceuticals challenged the IRA's constitutionality; in December 2025, it sought Supreme Court review of the Third Circuit's ruling. In October 2025, the company announced plans to separate its Orthopaedics business within 18 to 24 months.
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DARZALEX faces a patent expiration in the United States in 2029; Janssen Biotech licenses the compound patents from Genmab A/S at royalty rates ranging from 12% to 20% of total DARZALEX net sales, with royalties of about $2.4 billion paid in fiscal 2025 alone. STELARA, contributing 6.5% of total revenues, faces active biosimilar competition globally as multiple biologics license applications have been filed with the U.S. FDA and the European Medicines Agency. Combined, these two products represent roughly 21.5% of fiscal 2025 revenues and both are subject to near-term exclusivity pressure.
See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
From Johnson & Johnson's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-28Recent Developments — Johnson & Johnson
Latest news
- NEWS Johnson & Johnson to Host Investor Conference Call on Second-Quarter Results - Business Wire — Business Wire neutral
- NEWS Why We Increased The Position In Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Johnson & Johnson Earnings: Steady Growth and Good Near-Term Visibility - Morningstar — Morningstar positive
- NEWS Johnson & Johnson CFO Says Guidance Hike Is Just the Start - Barron's — Barron's positive
- NEWS Johnson & Johnson Stock (JNJ) Falls despite Q2 Beat, Higher Sales Forecast for 2026 - TipRanks — TipRanks positive
Generated 2026-07-31T00:14:33Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWProductDARZALEX15%10-K Item 1: 'Sales of the Company's largest product, collectively DARZALEX (daratumumab) and DARZALEX FASPRO ... accounted for approximately 15.0% of the Company's total revenues for fiscal 2025'
- LOWGeographicEurope23%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 43% of the Company's sales occurred outside of the U.S., with approximately 23% in Europe'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $272.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.3% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 49, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $264.04 (-3.1%), stop $253.95 (−7.3%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $264.04 (-8.4% upside). Target $264.04 (-3.1%), stop $253.95 (−7.3%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $253.95.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.3% away); Weak growth.
Johnson & Johnson trades at a P/E of 30.9 (forward 20.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
31 analysts cover JNJ with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $271.
What does Johnson & Johnson do?Johnson & Johnson develops and markets pharmaceutical and medical technology products globally across Innovative...
Johnson & Johnson develops and markets pharmaceutical and medical technology products globally across Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments, employing approximately 138,200 full-time equivalents. Revenue comes from prescription medicines, devices, and contact lenses sold through wholesalers, hospitals, and healthcare professionals. DARZALEX, its largest product, accounted for approximately 15% of fiscal 2025 revenues.