Value
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 6.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 3.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.9x
- ▸PEG: 3.13
JNJ · Why this verdict
Why Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.8 |
| ROA | 5.6 |
| Gross margin | 9.6 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 4.6 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 26%
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 59% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
2.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.38 (n=5)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $2,411,500 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 6.9 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 7.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.9 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.3 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.66
Upside
-5.5%
Downside
8.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.66 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0, Momentum at 7.2, and Quality at 7.1; the weakest are Growth at 2.5, Technical at 3.2, and Value at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.66 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.