Value
7.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.9 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
IPI · Why this verdict
Why Intrepid Potash (IPI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Intrepid Potash is a cheaply valued fertilizer and minerals producer with excellent cash conversion and a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak, but declining revenue, weak momentum and a price 0.7% above the analyst target limit the setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Intrepid is attractively valued with a PEG of 0.06 and converts 141% of net income into free cash flow, a strong cash-generation signal. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above net income and valuation remains attractive as earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterForward P/E of 22.6x is not cheap on near-term earnings, and low returns on equity and margins weaken the value case. | ||
Intrepid beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.56 versus a $0.38 estimate in August 2026, for an average surprise of +21.7%. Earnings | The November 3 report meets or beats the consensus estimate. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe November 2025 miss of 38% and a long history of misses in 2023 to 2025 show results are volatile. | ||
Revenue is declining 2% year over year, with the June 2026 quarter at $66.7M versus $67.5M a year earlier, and the company has no competitive moat. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stabilizes and grows above $67.5M year over year. | →Stable |
| CounterCommodity producers have little pricing power, and the estimated next quarter revenue of $51.0M points to a sharp seasonal drop. | ||
At $31.23 the stock is 0.7% above the $31.02 analyst target, with 6.8% downside to the stop, leaving no room to the upside on analyst estimates. Targets | Analysts raise targets above $31.23 as earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterWith the price already above target, any earnings disappointment could trigger target cuts and a pullback. | ||
Momentum is weak at 2.5/10 with falling on-balance volume, though the 200-day average is still rising, and the put/call ratio is elevated at 2.21. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume stops falling and price reclaims the 200-day moving average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio and distribution volume suggest investors are positioning for further declines. | ||
Intrepid is attractively valued with a PEG of 0.06 and converts 141% of net income into free cash flow, a strong cash-generation signal.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above net income and valuation remains attractive as earnings grow.
CounterForward P/E of 22.6x is not cheap on near-term earnings, and low returns on equity and margins weaken the value case.
Intrepid beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.56 versus a $0.38 estimate in August 2026, for an average surprise of +21.7%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The November 3 report meets or beats the consensus estimate.
CounterThe November 2025 miss of 38% and a long history of misses in 2023 to 2025 show results are volatile.
Revenue is declining 2% year over year, with the June 2026 quarter at $66.7M versus $67.5M a year earlier, and the company has no competitive moat.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stabilizes and grows above $67.5M year over year.
CounterCommodity producers have little pricing power, and the estimated next quarter revenue of $51.0M points to a sharp seasonal drop.
At $31.23 the stock is 0.7% above the $31.02 analyst target, with 6.8% downside to the stop, leaving no room to the upside on analyst estimates.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $31.23 as earnings grow.
CounterWith the price already above target, any earnings disappointment could trigger target cuts and a pullback.
Momentum is weak at 2.5/10 with falling on-balance volume, though the 200-day average is still rising, and the put/call ratio is elevated at 2.21.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume stops falling and price reclaims the 200-day moving average.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio and distribution volume suggest investors are positioning for further declines.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.0 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 1.6 |
| Op margin | 1.0 |
| Net margin | 5.4 |
| Current ratio | 6.7 |
| FCF quality | 9.7 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 141% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.1 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 8.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.1 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.42 (n=4)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.1 |
| quality rank | 4.8 |
| growth rank | 2.2 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.0 |
| support resistance | 6.7 |
| 52w position | 2.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| put call | 4.0 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.28
Upside
-1.9%
Downside
6.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=7.7
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.31>1.3, MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.28 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Insider at 7.3, and Catalyst at 7.1; the weakest are Growth at 2.1, Peer rank at 4.2, and Quality at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Strong Cash
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 80% of net income from the current 141%.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Declining Revenue No Moat
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $55M year over year in the June quarter.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifStock price falls below the $29.45 stop level from the current $31.23.
- P5Weak Momentum Bearish Options
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 3.0 from the current 2.21.