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International Paper Company (IP) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.57: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

International Paper produces renewable fiber-based packaging with $23.63B net sales in 2025. Operates 15 packaging mills and 159 converting plants in the U.S., plus 14 containerboard mills and 159 plants in Europe, North Africa, and Latin America. A planned separation into... Read more

$31.57+22.1% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#1 of 16 Packaging & Containers
Stop $28.57Target $37.15(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$42.70+35.3%10 analysts
$37.15our TP
$31.57price
$42.70mean
$48

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.57: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 23, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Val7.9Qual2.8Grw10.0Mom2.9Sent7.4Ins5.2Peer4.8Tech6.9Risk4.05.9OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-22.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin 3.0%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)11.1
Mkt Cap$16.1B
EV/EBITDA6.5
Profit Mgn-14.9%
ROE-24.7%
Rev Growth53.1%
Beta1.10
Dividend6.08%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.99neutral
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$25-20.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
1.6
Gross Margin
1.9
Operating Margin
2.6
Current Ratio
4.8
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Vol Acceleration
2.6
Rsi
3.0
Volume
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d — confirmed downtrendVolume surge (2.4x avg) on selloff
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Moderate
RSI
23 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $29.45Resistance $38.06

Price Targets

$29
$37
A.Upside+17.7%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-22.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin 3.0%)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.57: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 23, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $28.57. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.15 (+22.1% upside). Prior stop was $28.57. Stop-loss: $28.57.

What are the risks of investing in IP?

Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-22.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin 3.0%).

Is IP overvalued or undervalued?

International Paper Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IP?

21 analysts cover IP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $43.

What does International Paper Company do?International Paper produces renewable fiber-based packaging with $23.63B net sales in 2025. Operates 15 packaging...

International Paper produces renewable fiber-based packaging with $23.63B net sales in 2025. Operates 15 packaging mills and 159 converting plants in the U.S., plus 14 containerboard mills and 159 plants in Europe, North Africa, and Latin America. A planned separation into independent North America and EMEA companies announced January 2026 is currently paused.

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