An in-line result in the most recent quarter followed by three consecutive and severe misses, a dividend payout ratio of 508%, and business quality that falls well short of acceptable standards combine to make this a situation where the risk/reward is unfavorable and the setup favors patience over adding exposure at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Minimum Threshold↑Improving
- Dividend Payout Unsustainable↑Improving
- Persistent Earnings Miss Pattern↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
International Paper Company (IP) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.48: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.96; Below-average business quality.
International Paper produces renewable fiber-based packaging — containerboard, corrugated boxes, bulk bins, and specialty packaging — through two segments: Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA, with 15 U.S. mills, 159 U.S. converting plants, 14... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.48: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.96; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About International Paper Company
About International Paper Company
International Paper generated $23.63 billion in net sales in 2025 with $1.7 billion in cash from operating activities, operating across two segments — Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA — with approximately 62,602 employees globally. The company completed the $1.5 billion sale of its Global Cellulose Fibers business to American Industrial Partners in January 2026, returned $977 million to shareholders via dividends in 2025, and announced a plan to separate into two independent publicly traded companies targeting completion near end of 2026 or early 2027.
International Paper earns revenue from containerboard, corrugated boxes, bulk bins, and specialty packaging sold to end users and converters across food and beverage, agriculture, industrial manufacturing, personal care, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods industries, through direct sales as well as agents, resellers, and distributors. Key input costs include virgin wood fiber, recycled fiber, caustic soda, starch, adhesives, natural gas, electricity, biomass, and fuel oil — all subject to commodity price cycles. In the U.S., the company operates 15 packaging mills, 159 converting plants, and 15 recycling plants; internationally, operations include 14 containerboard mills, 159 converting plants, and 20 recycling plants across Europe, North Africa, and Latin America. Capital expenditures were approximately $1.9 billion in 2025 and are planned at $2.0–2.1 billion in 2026. Approximately 8,622 U.S. employees are represented by the United Steelworkers union under master agreements covering mills and converting facilities.
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The 10-K notes that substantially all of International Paper's businesses have experienced, and are expected to continue to experience, cycles in industry capacity, customer demand, and general economic conditions — with demand for packaging products in industrialized countries showing significant correlation with economic growth. Energy costs, principally natural gas, electricity, and fuel oil, have fluctuated dramatically and could continue to do so. The planned EMEA separation adds execution risk: the 10-K identifies non-completion of the proposed separation on the contemplated timeline or at all as a named risk factor.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
From International Paper Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — International Paper Company
Latest news
- NEWS International Paper Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS International Paper Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts Give Their Take On 3 Materials Stocks Delivering High-Dividend Yields — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS International Paper Q3 Adj. EPS $0.37 Beats $0.28 Estimate, Sales $6.197B Miss $6.269B Estimate — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ImagineAR Inc. Files Certification of Interim Filings — fiscal.ai Oct 22, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.48: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.96; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Prior stop was $32.32. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $38.89 (+12.8% upside). Prior stop was $32.32. Stop-loss: $32.32.
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).
International Paper Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover IP with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $45.
What does International Paper Company do?International Paper produces renewable fiber-based packaging — containerboard, corrugated boxes, bulk bins, and...
International Paper produces renewable fiber-based packaging — containerboard, corrugated boxes, bulk bins, and specialty packaging — through two segments: Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA, with 15 U.S. mills, 159 U.S. converting plants, 14 international containerboard mills, and 159 international converting plants. Net sales were $23.63 billion in 2025; the company plans to separate into two independent publicly traded companies targeting completion near end of 2026 or early 2027.