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IPInternational Paper CompanySell4.9·$37.21+2.93%
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International Paper Company (IP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.21: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

International Paper is a global producer of renewable fiber-based packaging with $23.63B in 2025 net sales, operating 15 U.S. packaging mills, 14 international mills, and 318 converting/recycling plants across two segments: Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging... Read more

$37.21-0.3% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#15 of 16 Packaging & Containers
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.94%
IncomeYield5.12%(5y avg 4.50%)Payout158.12%at-risk
Stop $34.57Target $37.05(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$39.36+5.8%11 analysts
$37.05our TP
$37.21price
$39.36mean
$32
$45

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.21: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — International Paper Company

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-7.9% upside)
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)13.5
Mkt Cap$19.1B
EV/EBITDA6.9
Profit Mgn-13.8%
ROE-16.0%
Rev Growth13.4%
Beta0.93
Dividend5.12%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.05bullish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$18-53.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.7
52w Position
3.9
Gap
5.0

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
1.2
Operating Margin
1.5
Gross Margin
1.9
Current Ratio
4.6
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MDividend: 512.0%
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $28.83Resistance $37.81

Price Targets

$35
$37
A.Upside-0.4%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.21: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Prior stop was $34.57. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.05 (-0.3% upside). Prior stop was $34.57. Stop-loss: $34.57.

What are the risks of investing in IP?

Target reached (-7.9% upside); Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is IP overvalued or undervalued?

International Paper Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IP?

21 analysts cover IP with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $39.

What does International Paper Company do?International Paper is a global producer of renewable fiber-based packaging with $23.63B in 2025 net sales, operating...

International Paper is a global producer of renewable fiber-based packaging with $23.63B in 2025 net sales, operating 15 U.S. packaging mills, 14 international mills, and 318 converting/recycling plants across two segments: Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA. It plans to separate into two independent publicly traded companies near end of 2026 or early 2027.

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