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IOTSamsara Inc.Sell5.4·$32.09-1.69%
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Samsara Inc. (IOT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.09: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Samsara provides an AI-powered Connected Operations Platform for physical industries (transportation, construction, logistics, utilities), connecting fleets, equipment, and frontline workers via IoT devices and cloud software. Revenue was $1,618.6M in FY2026, with approximately... Read more

$32.09+23.9% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#45 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.28%
Stop $29.80Target $39.69(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$44.11+37.4%19 analysts
$39.69our TP
$32.09price
$44.11mean
$53

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.09: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-11
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Sep 3, 202684d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Connected Operations Platform subscriptions (98.0%)
Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)326.4
P/E (Fwd)36.5
Mkt Cap$19.0B
EV/EBITDA-14152.0
Profit Mgn3.3%
ROE4.4%
Rev Growth30.5%
Beta1.34
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.92neutral
IV81%elevated
Max Pain$18-43.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductConnected Operations Platform subscriptions98%
    10-K Item 1: 'we generated approximately 98% of our revenue from subscriptions to our Connected Operations Platform'
  • MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of joint design manufacturers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our dependence on a limited number of joint design manufacturers and suppliers of manufacturing services and critical components within our supply chain for our Internet of Things'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Volatile — 7.6% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
0.4
Days To Cover
2.0
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Short Interest
3.4
Beta
5.6
Put Call
7.2
High IV: 81%Above max pain $18Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.8
Quality Rank
3.1
Growth Rank
7.8
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $26.92Resistance $38.77

Price Targets

$30
$40
A.Upside+23.7%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0)
! momentum at 1.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-03 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IOT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.09: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $29.80. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IOT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.69 (+23.9% upside). Prior stop was $29.80. Stop-loss: $29.80.

What are the risks of investing in IOT?

Concentration risk — Product: Connected Operations Platform subscriptions (98.0%); Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0).

Is IOT overvalued or undervalued?

Samsara Inc. trades at a P/E of 326.4 (forward 36.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IOT?

27 analysts cover IOT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Samsara Inc. do?Samsara provides an AI-powered Connected Operations Platform for physical industries (transportation, construction,...

Samsara provides an AI-powered Connected Operations Platform for physical industries (transportation, construction, logistics, utilities), connecting fleets, equipment, and frontline workers via IoT devices and cloud software. Revenue was $1,618.6M in FY2026, with approximately 98% from subscriptions; over 12,000 Core Customers each contributing $25K+ ARR.

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