Value
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 2.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 38.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
IOT · Why this verdict
Why Samsara (IOT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.5 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.6 |
| Net margin | 1.7 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 421% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 44 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 31%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $79,610,677 (0.393% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 3.1 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 3.9 |
| 52w position | 4.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.7 |
| days to cover | 3.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 5.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 0.4 |
- ▸High IV: 84%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:87d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.22
Upside
+18.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.34>1.3
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.6, and Sentiment at 7.4; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.5, Insider at 3.4, and Peer rank at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.