Heartland Express beat earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters and trades near its $10.61 analyst target, but quality is 1.5/10, revenue is declining 9%, leverage is high and the stock is in a weak momentum phase.
Thesis pillars
- Weak Business Quality↓Deteriorating
- Declining Revenue↓Deteriorating
- Leverage And Insider Selling Value Trap↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 3, 2026
Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Industrials · Trucking
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.19: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Heartland Express, Inc. is a holding company incorporated in Nevada, which directly or indirectly owns all of the stock of the following legal entities: Heartland Express, Inc. of Iowa, Heartland Express Services, Inc., Heartland Express Maintenance Services, Inc. (collectively,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.19: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Heartland Express, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Barclays Lowers Heartland Express Price Target to $10.00 — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Underweight on Heartland Express, Lowers Price Target to $10 — benzinga Oct 27, 2026 negative
- NEWS UBS Adjusts Heartland Express Price Target to $12 — fiscal.ai Oct 22, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Heartland Express, Lowers Price Target to $12 — benzinga Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Heartland Express, Inc. Reports Financial Results for the Third Quarter 2026 — fiscal.ai Oct 20, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:39Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-09-02Item 5.02MEDIUMHEARTLAND EXPRESS, INC. | | | | | Date: | September 2, 2026 | | By:/s/Christopher A. Strain | | | | Christopher A. Strain | | | | Vice President-Finance, | | | | Treasurer and Chief Financial Officer |SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -8.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -1.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.19: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $9.57. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $10.27 (+0.7% upside). Prior stop was $9.57. Stop-loss: $9.57.
Target reached (0.7% upside); Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0).
Heartland Express, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 23.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover HTLD with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $12.
What does Heartland Express, Inc. do?Heartland Express, Inc. is a holding company incorporated in Nevada, which directly or indirectly owns all of the stock...
Heartland Express, Inc. is a holding company incorporated in Nevada, which directly or indirectly owns all of the stock of the following legal entities: Heartland Express, Inc. of Iowa, Heartland Express Services, Inc., Heartland Express Maintenance Services, Inc. (collectively, "Heartland Express"), and Midwest Holding Group, LLC and Millis Transfer, LLC (together, "Millis Transfer"), and Smith Transport, LLC ("Smith Transport"), and certain Mexican entities.