Value
7.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
HTLD · Why this verdict
Why Heartland Express (HTLD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Heartland Express beat earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters and trades near its $10.61 analyst target, but quality is 1.5/10, revenue is declining 9%, leverage is high and the stock is in a weak momentum phase.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 1.5/10, below the 4.0 minimum, with no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score should rise above 5/9 and quality toward 4.0 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterTrucking is a cyclical, low-moat business with zero ROE and margin credit, so quality may stay depressed until freight demand recovers. | ||
Revenue is declining 9%, ranking Heartland at the bottom of peers on growth. Growth breakdown | Revenue should stabilize and return to positive YoY growth within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA prolonged freight downturn could extend the decline beyond 9% and keep margins under pressure. | ||
Value-trap signals show in 2 of 5 checks: high leverage with debt-to-equity of 2.2 and material insider selling across 16 sells. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should fall below 2.0 while insider selling subsides over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh leverage on a shrinking revenue base raises refinancing risk, and repeated insider selling suggests insiders see limited upside. | ||
Heartland beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, though the latest quarter missed at $0.01 against $0.03. Earnings | EPS should come in at or above consensus in the next 2 reports. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe beats were against negative estimates and the latest miss shows earnings may be rolling over. | ||
The $10.18 price is only 4.3% below the $10.61 analyst target against an 8.0% modeled downside, with RSI of 17 and falling on-balance volume. Targets | Price should stabilize above the $9.57 stop level. | →Stable |
| CounterWith little upside to target and volume distribution, any further earnings disappointment would put the stop level at risk. | ||
Quality scores 1.5/10, below the 4.0 minimum, with no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score should rise above 5/9 and quality toward 4.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterTrucking is a cyclical, low-moat business with zero ROE and margin credit, so quality may stay depressed until freight demand recovers.
Revenue is declining 9%, ranking Heartland at the bottom of peers on growth.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should stabilize and return to positive YoY growth within 12 months.
CounterA prolonged freight downturn could extend the decline beyond 9% and keep margins under pressure.
Value-trap signals show in 2 of 5 checks: high leverage with debt-to-equity of 2.2 and material insider selling across 16 sells.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should fall below 2.0 while insider selling subsides over 12 months.
CounterHigh leverage on a shrinking revenue base raises refinancing risk, and repeated insider selling suggests insiders see limited upside.
Heartland beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, though the latest quarter missed at $0.01 against $0.03.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should come in at or above consensus in the next 2 reports.
CounterThe beats were against negative estimates and the latest miss shows earnings may be rolling over.
The $10.18 price is only 4.3% below the $10.61 analyst target against an 8.0% modeled downside, with RSI of 17 and falling on-balance volume.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price should stabilize above the $9.57 stop level.
CounterWith little upside to target and volume distribution, any further earnings disappointment would put the stop level at risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.5 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.1 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.3 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -9%
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 8.6 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 2.9 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.42 (n=2)
Insider
4.7/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.4 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 1.5 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 8.6 |
| 52w position | 2.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.7 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 70%
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:89d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.09
Upside
+0.7%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.35>1.3, MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.6<4.5 outcome against Value at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of 0.09.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.3, Catalyst at 6.8, and Technical at 6.2; the weakest are Growth at 0.3, Quality at 1.5, and Peer rank at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Weak Business Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score stays below 4/9 for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P2Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds 12% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Leverage And Insider Selling Value Trap
Trip ifDebt-to-equity rises above 2.5 from the current 2.2.
- P4Mostly Positive Earnings Surprises
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
- P5Limited Upside And Capitulation Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the $9.57 stop level from the current $10.18.