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HTHTH World Group LimitedSell6.5·$44.66-0.58%
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H World Group Limited (HTHT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Lodging

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $44.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.2): -1.5; Negative momentum.

H World Group Limited develops leased and owned, manachised, and franchised hotels in the People's Republic of China. The company operates hotels under its own brands, such as HanTing Hotel, Ni Hao Hotel, Hi Inn, Elan Hotel, Zleep Hotels, Ibis Hotel, JI Hotel, Orange Hotel,... Read more

$44.66+21.0% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#2 of 8 Lodging
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield47.14%
IncomeYield4.72%Payout81.13%at-risk
Stop $42.18Target $54.06(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.8:1
Analyst target$60.06+34.5%17 analysts
$54.06our TP
$44.66price
$60.06mean
$65

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $44.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.2): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 67d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 20, 202667d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.2): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.2
P/E (Fwd)14.2
Mkt Cap$13.7B
EV/EBITDA4.0
Profit Mgn19.3%
ROE46.4%
Rev Growth11.1%
Beta0.10
Dividend4.72%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.29bearish
IV95%elevated
Max Pain$75+67.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.4
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Macd
9.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 3.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 67d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $42.40Resistance $46.80

Price Targets

$42
$54
A.Upside+21.0%
A.R:R3.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-20 (67d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HTHT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $44.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.2): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $42.18. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HTHT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $54.06 (+21.0% upside). Prior stop was $42.18. Stop-loss: $42.18.

What are the risks of investing in HTHT?

Leverage penalty (D/E 3.2): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is HTHT overvalued or undervalued?

H World Group Limited trades at a P/E of 19.2 (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HTHT?

21 analysts cover HTHT with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $60.

What does H World Group Limited do?H World Group Limited develops leased and owned, manachised, and franchised hotels in the People's Republic of China....

H World Group Limited develops leased and owned, manachised, and franchised hotels in the People's Republic of China. The company operates hotels under its own brands, such as HanTing Hotel, Ni Hao Hotel, Hi Inn, Elan Hotel, Zleep Hotels, Ibis Hotel, JI Hotel, Orange Hotel, Starway Hotel, Ibis Styles Hotel, CitiGO Hotel, Crystal Orange Hotel, IntercityHotel, Manxin Hotel, Mercure Hotel, Madison Hotel, Novotel Hotel, Joya Hotel, Blossom House, Steigenberger Hotels & Resorts, Jaz in the City, Grand Mercure, Steigenberger Icon, and Song Hotels. The company was formerly known as Huazhu Group Limited and changed its name to H World Group Limited in June 2022. H World Group Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Related stocks: ATAT (Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limite) · HLT (Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.) · WH (Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.) · MAR (Marriott International) · IHG (Intercontinental Hotels Group)
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