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Choice Hotels International, In (CHH) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Lodging

Sell if holding. At $99.08, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 11.2): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 5.5%.

We are primarily a hotel franchisor operating in 49 states, the District of Columbia, and 50 countries and territories. As of December 31, 2025, we had 7,575 hotels with 656,825 rooms open and operating, and 825 hotels with 77,862 rooms under construction, awaiting conversion or... Read more

$99.08+5.5% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#8 of 8 Lodging
Stop $95.80Target $104.52(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$116.13+17.2%15 analysts
$104.52our TP
$99.08price
$116.13mean
$87
$132

Sell if holding. At $99.08, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 11.2): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 5.5%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.5%
Leverage penalty (D/E 11.2): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4
P/E (Fwd)12.8
Mkt Cap$4.5B
EV/EBITDA14.5
Profit Mgn37.7%
ROE544.2%
Rev Growth2.4%
Beta0.75
Dividend0.98%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C11.15bearish
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$75-24.3% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02MEDIUM
    .Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 20, 2026, Simone Wu, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Corporate Secretary & External Affairs of Choice Hotels International, Inc.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.1

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Vol Acceleration
1.8
Rsi
3.5
Volume
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d — confirmed downtrendVolume surge (3.2x avg) on selloff
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $98.76Resistance $123.82

Price Targets

$96
$105
A.Upside+5.5%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $99.08, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 11.2): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 5.5%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $95.80. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

What is the CHH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $104.52 (+5.5% upside). Prior stop was $95.80. Stop-loss: $95.80.

What are the risks of investing in CHH?

Thin upside margin: 5.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 11.2): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is CHH overvalued or undervalued?

Choice Hotels International, In trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CHH?

23 analysts cover CHH with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $116.

What does Choice Hotels International, In do?We are primarily a hotel franchisor operating in 49 states, the District of Columbia, and 50 countries and territories....

We are primarily a hotel franchisor operating in 49 states, the District of Columbia, and 50 countries and territories. As of December 31, 2025, we had 7,575 hotels with 656,825 rooms open and operating, and 825 hotels with 77,862 rooms under construction, awaiting conversion or approved for development, or committed to future franchise development on outstanding

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