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HTGCHercules Capital, Inc.Hold6.1·$15.62+0.71%
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Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.62, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Hercules Capital is an internally managed BDC providing senior secured loans to venture capital-backed technology and life sciences companies, with over $25B in commitments since inception. Revenue comes from interest income, exit fees, and warrant/equity appreciation across... Read more

$15.62+8.6% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#24 of 109 Asset Management
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield8.55%
IncomeYield12.13%(5y avg 9.96%)Payout105.03%at-risk
Stop $14.90Target $16.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$19.36+24.0%9 analysts
$16.84our TP
$15.62price
$19.36mean
$25

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.62, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 42%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.7%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.7
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA11.6
Profit Mgn59.9%
ROE15.7%
Rev Growth18.4%
Beta0.74
Dividend12.13%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$20+28.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductApplication Software industry24%
    10-K Item 1A: '24.3% comprised investments in the "Application Software" industry'
  • MEDIUMProductDrug Discovery & Development industry23%
    10-K Item 1A: '23.3% comprised investments in the "Drug Discovery & Development" industry'
  • MEDIUMProductHealthcare Services, Other industry19%
    10-K Item 1A: '18.8% comprised investments in the "Healthcare Services, Other" industry'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Seth Meyer transitions to President effective May 18, 2026. Andrew Olson appointed as new CFO effective May 18, 2026. Clean handoff; no disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.0>=4.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $15.07Resistance $15.84

Price Targets

$15
$17
A.Upside+7.8%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HTGC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.62, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $16.84 (+7.8%), stop $14.90 (−4.8%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HTGC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.84 (+8.6% upside). Target $16.84 (+7.8%), stop $14.90 (−4.8%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $14.90.

What are the risks of investing in HTGC?

Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is HTGC overvalued or undervalued?

Hercules Capital, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.7 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HTGC?

15 analysts cover HTGC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Hercules Capital, Inc. do?Hercules Capital is an internally managed BDC providing senior secured loans to venture capital-backed technology and...

Hercules Capital is an internally managed BDC providing senior secured loans to venture capital-backed technology and life sciences companies, with over $25B in commitments since inception. Revenue comes from interest income, exit fees, and warrant/equity appreciation across 164+ portfolio companies. As an internally managed BDC, Hercules avoids external management fees.

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