Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Asset Management
Sell if holding. At $16.20, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.9%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5.
Hercules Capital is an internally managed BDC providing senior secured loans to venture and institutional-backed technology and life sciences companies. Revenue comes from interest income and fees on its loan portfolio, managed as a non-diversified closed-end investment company... Read more
Sell if holding. At $16.20, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.9%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerApplication Software industry24%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 87.1% of the fair value of our portfolio comprised investments in five industries: 24.3% comprised investments in the "Application Software" industry'
- MEDIUMCustomerDrug Discovery & Development industry23%10-K Item 1A: '23.3% comprised investments in the "Drug Discovery & Development" industry'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $16.20, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.9%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $15.47. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $16.84 (+3.9% upside). Prior stop was $15.47. Stop-loss: $15.47.
Thin upside margin: 3.9%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Earnings in 4 days (event risk).
Hercules Capital, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.7 (forward 8.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover HTGC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $19.
What does Hercules Capital, Inc. do?Hercules Capital is an internally managed BDC providing senior secured loans to venture and institutional-backed...
Hercules Capital is an internally managed BDC providing senior secured loans to venture and institutional-backed technology and life sciences companies. Revenue comes from interest income and fees on its loan portfolio, managed as a non-diversified closed-end investment company under the 1940 Act.