Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 6.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 8.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.70
- ▸Attractively valued
HTGC · Why this verdict
Why Hercules Capital (HTGC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.2 |
| ROA | 4.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 0.5 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 60%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 75% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 63 (elite)
Growth
5.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.1 |
| EPS growth | 4.2 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $618,866 (0.021% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.3 |
| support resistance | 4.4 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 4.7 |
| volatility | 7.7 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 2.5 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 65%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 1213.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:47d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.73
Upside
+8.7%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 7.7; weakest: Catalyst at 5.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Sentiment at 7.6, and Quality at 6.7; the weakest are Catalyst at 5.0, Momentum at 5.0, and Technical at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.